Washington, D.C. (October 11, 2016)—A new PRRI/The Atlantic survey of likely voters—in the field while news broke of the 2005 recording of Donald Trump making lewd comments about women—shows Hillary Clinton with a double-digit lead over Donald Trump: 49 percent vs. 38 percent. Only 6 points separated the two candidates in the same survey last week; while two weeks ago, it found Trump and Clinton tied at 43 percent each among likely voters.
Independent voters have completely shifted their allegiance from Trump to Clinton in the last week alone, with support for Trump plummeting by 11 points among this voter group. Last week, Clinton trailed Trump among independent voters by eight points (36 percent vs. 44 percent). Today, the numbers are reversed, with 44 percent favoring Clinton, and 33 percent supporting Trump.
Reporting on the survey's topline findings by The Atlantic’s David Graham is online at The Atlantic’s Politics & Policy section. A full look at the findings can be found on PRRI’s website. All citations should be attributed to PRRI/The Atlantic.
The PRRI/The Atlantic survey also finds Trump is facing an historic deficit among female voters: just 28 percent of women voters back Trump (down from 33 percent last week), compared to 61 percent who support Clinton. Graham reports: “Even more remarkably, Trump’s support has collapsed among white women without college degrees. Until recently, they formed Trump’s largest bloc of support. In 2004, they voted for George W. Bush by 19 points; in 2008, they backed John McCain by 17 points; and in 2012, they went with Mitt Romney by 20 points. This poll finds them evenly split between Clinton and Trump, with each drawing 40 percent support.”
Clinton faces a deficit among male voters: 48 percent of male voters support Trump, while 37 percent support Clinton. Among white male likely voters, Trump leads Clinton by 28 points (57 percent vs. 29 percent).
Relevant Links for PRRI/The Atlantic Survey // Released October 11, 2016
- From The Atlantic: Independents and Women Bail on Trump, Giving Clinton a Double-Digit Lead
- From PRRI: Full Analysis of Survey
- From PRRI: Topline questionnaire, including survey methodology
The survey was designed and conducted by PRRI in partnership with The Atlantic. The survey was made possible by generous grants from Open Society Foundations and the Ford Foundation. Results of the survey were based on bilingual (Spanish and English) RDD telephone interviews conducted between October 5, 2016, and October 9, 2016, by professional interviewers under the direction of SSRS. Interviews were conducted among a random sample of 1,327 adults 18 years of age or older living in the United States (801 respondents were interviewed on a cell phone). The selection of respondents within households was accomplished by randomly requesting to speak with the youngest adult male or female currently living in the household.
The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.2 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. The design effect for the survey is 1.4. In addition to sampling error, surveys may also be subject to error or bias due to question wording, context and order effects.