Read: The true victors of Trump’s Supreme Court nomination
Maybe the Biden team thinks court packing is a distraction from the fight over Barrett—his communications director, Kate Bedingfield, has said as much. Maybe the question is still unresolved within the campaign. Maybe Harris didn’t want to answer a question from Pence; throughout the evening, both candidates dodged direct queries from the moderator, too. Whatever the reason, if Democrats win big in November, court packing will be an urgent and live question that Biden and Harris will have to take on within their coalition. Evasion isn’t a good enough answer.
With less than four weeks to go before the election, Americans are more tuned in to the future of the Supreme Court than at any time in recent memory. Nearly six in 10 voters say the Court will be “very important” to their choices in November, and the issue now ranks among voters’ top concerns, according to a Morning Consult poll taken shortly after Ginsburg’s death.
Read: The Democrats’ Supreme Court Hail Mary
The Trump administration is relying on a Supreme Court victory to help them with voters. Across the board, polling suggests Trump is trailing Biden, including in several swing states where Republican-held Senate seats are on the ballot. While a majority of voters have said they believe that the winner of the presidential election should pick the next Supreme Court justice—the Biden-Harris position—Trump’s allies are betting that they can mobilize their base by pushing forward with Barrett. They had also hoped her confirmation would give them a way to redirect the political conversation away from COVID-19, although the recent coronavirus outbreak at the White House following the announcement of her nomination makes that much more difficult. If nothing else, her confirmation would secure a 6–3 conservative majority on the Court even if Republicans lose badly next month.
Republicans are also betting that court packing is a bad look for Democrats. The last major push for court packing happened under President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who openly wished for justices who wouldn’t challenge his sweeping New Deal legislation. “If you cherish the Supreme Court and the separation of powers, you need to reject the Biden-Harris ticket come November 3rd, and we’ll keep the nine-seat Supreme Court,” Pence said.
Ideas: The reckless race to confirm Amy Coney Barrett justifies court-packing
Pence’s tactic here is familiar: tying the historically moderate Biden to the desires of the Democratic Party’s progressive wing. But the Biden campaign may not be able to easily wave it away. When Harris was vying for the Democratic presidential nomination, she said she was open to adding more justices to the Court; so did multiple other candidates competing in the primary. In the past, Biden has dismissed court packing, but he declined to answer whether he wants to expand the Supreme Court during the last debate. The Senate minority leader, Chuck Schumer, has said that court packing will be “on the table” if Barrett is confirmed, and other members of Congress have rallied behind the proposal. The pressure to take a position, not just from Republicans, but also from fellow Democrats, may only grow.