Hillary Clinton continues to hold the line against Donald Trump, bolstered by a modest bump following the first presidential debate, according to a before-and-after PRRI/The Atlantic poll released Thursday.
Prior to meeting onstage at Hofstra University, the candidates were statistically tied, stuck at 43 percent among the voters most likely to cast a ballot. That changed in the days following the debate; Clinton jumped four percentage points to 47 percent, the poll showed, while Trump fell to 41 percent. The Democrat also remains ahead among the wider pool of registered voters.
Even so, Clinton hasn’t yet reclaimed the heights she hit during her post-convention honeymoon in August, and she struggles among white working-class voters far more likely to support Trump, who is drawing very little support from voters of color.
“Trump really is appealing to people who don’t regularly vote in elections,” said Daniel Cox, PRRI’s director of research. “At least part of his base are folks who have only recently become activated to get involved.
“Do these folks come out to vote?” he continued. “That’s a real question mark.”
He’s right to ask. Uniformly, people are less interested in voting than in previous elections. At this point in 2012, more than 70 percent of Americans said they were certain they’d vote—and that wasn’t a particularly stunning election as far as turnout goes. This time around, only 59 percent are positive they’ll cast a ballot, and more than a quarter told pollsters they’d put their odds of voting at 50-50 or less.