If Donald Trump becomes president, the world will have Hillary Clinton to blame.
On the day her campaign released an ad that makes a brutal and effective case against a Trump presidency—“Our children are watching”—a New York Times poll revealed the cost of her squandered credibility.
Clinton and Trump are tied nationally, each supported by 40 percent of voters, in a survey taken after FBI director James Comey undercut Clinton’s shifting and deceptive explanations of her email practices at the State Department. A month ago, she held a six-point lead in the same poll.
While this is just one poll, virtually all statewide and national surveys suggest the race is tightening despite a number of factors weighted in Clinton’s favor. These include:
- The nation’s new demography favors Democratic presidential candidates. (President Obama’s coalition of young, minority, and well-educated voters is still ascendant.)
- The Electoral College favors Democratic candidates. (Eighteen states and the District of Columbia have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in each of the most recent six presidential elections, from 1992 through 2012. Together, they represent 242 electoral votes.)
- Clinton is a former senator, secretary of state, and first lady who is arguably more prepared, in terms of experience, than any non-incumbent presidential candidate ever.
- Clinton is outspending Trump 40-1 on advertising in states that will determine who wins the campaign.
- Clinton is running against Trump. That’s her biggest advantage. The celebrity billionaire has no political experience, no foreign-policy experience, and no more than a superficial interest or understanding in public policy. He is also—to put it kindly—temperamentally challenged.