Hillary Clinton may have amassed a nearly insurmountable lead in delegates, but rank-and-file Democrats are now virtually split between her and Bernie Sanders over which candidate should be their party’s presidential nominee, according to a new PRRI / The Atlantic poll.
Sanders had the support of 47 percent of Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters while Clinton had 46 percent—a narrow gap that fell within the poll’s 2.5 percent margin of error. The national survey was conducted in the days before the Vermont senator handily defeated the former secretary of state in the Wisconsin primary, and it tracks other polls in the last week that found Sanders erasing Clinton’s edge across the country. In a poll that PRRI conducted in January, Clinton had a 20-point lead.
Trump is still in the lead,
but Sanders and Clinton are tied
Trump tops the Republican field, as he has for months.
But fresh from a string of primary victories,
Sanders has pulled into a statistical tie with Clinton among registered voters.
Trump
37%
Cruz
31%
Kasich
23%
Sanders
47%
Clinton
46%
Source | PRRI/The Atlantic April 2016 Poll
Trump is still in the lead,
but Sanders and
Clinton are tied
Trump tops the Republican field,
as he has for months. But fresh from a string
of primary victories, Sanders has pulled
into a statistical tie with Clinton
among registered voters.
Trump
37%
Cruz
31%
Kasich
23%
Sanders
47%
Clinton
46%
Source | PRRI/The Atlantic April 2016 Poll
Democrats are sharply divided by age and by party loyalty. Sanders is strongly preferred by younger voters, both women and men, while Clinton does better with older voters and those who closely identify with the Democratic Party. Sanders, by contrast, runs strong among weaker partisans and independents—a finding that has also been reflected in exit polls taken after people have already cast their votes.
The gap in party loyalty might explain why Clinton has been highlighting Sanders’s tenuous past connection to the Democratic Party in recent days. “He’s a relatively new Democrat,” Clinton told Politico’s Glenn Thrush in a podcast interview published on Wednesday. “I’m not even sure he is one.” She repeated the message in two separate television interviews later in the morning. “Senator Sanders, by his own admission, has never even been a Democrat,” she said on CNN. Sanders describes himself as a Democratic socialist and has won election in Vermont as an independent, although he caucuses with Democrats in the Senate. He considered running for president as an independent before determining he had a better chance of spreading his message in the Democratic primary.
Clinton has a 21-point advantage among Democrats with a strong attachment to the party, the poll found, while Sanders leads 61 percent to 32 percent among Democratic-leaning independents. The age gap was equally as large. Nearly three-quarters of voters ages 18-29 backed Sanders, and two-thirds of seniors support Clinton. Sanders’s strength among younger voters has allowed him to close Clinton’s lead with women; 46 percent back her to 44 percent for Sanders. Only one-third of women under the age of 50 want Clinton to be the Democratic nominee, the poll found. “It really is age more than gender that makes the difference here,” said Robert P. Jones, who directed the poll for the Public Religion Research Institute, a Washington-based nonpartisan think tank. Sanders leads by nine points among white Democrats, while Clinton has a nearly two-to-one edge among African Americans. The candidates are essentially tied among Hispanic Democrats.
Age makes a huge difference
in how Democratic women vote
One of the bigger splits dividing Clinton and Sanders among registered voters lies between older and younger Democratic women. Younger female voters go for Sanders, but if they’re 50 or older,
they probably support Clinton.
Democratic women under 50
Democratic women 50 and older
Support Clinton: 61%
Support Clinton: 33%
Democratic women under 50
Democratic women 50 and older
Support Sanders: 58%
Support Sanders: 29%
Source | PRRI/The Atlantic April 2016 Poll
Age makes a
huge difference in how
Democratic women vote
One of the bigger splits dividing Clinton
and Sanders among registered voters lies
between older and younger Democratic women. Younger female voters go
for Sanders, but if they’re 50 or older,
they probably support Clinton.
Democratic women under 50
Support Clinton: 33%
Democratic women 50 and older
Support Clinton: 61%
Democratic women under 50
Support Sanders: 58%
Democratic women 50 and older
Support Sanders: 29%
Source | PRRI/The Atlantic April 2016 Poll
In the race for the GOP nomination, Donald Trump held a six-point lead over Senator Ted Cruz among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, the poll found. Ohio Governor John Kasich had the support of 23 percent of respondents. What separates Cruz and Trump? According to the survey, their respective supporters differ more in their views about race and gender than in their economic status. Trump supporters (68 percent) were more likely than Cruz supports (57 percent) to say that American society has become too “soft and feminine”; that the government paid too much attention to black people (55 percent Trump, 38 percent Cruz); and that they are bothered by immigrants who speak little or no English (64 percent Trump, 46 percent Cruz).
Many Trump supporters are uncomfortable
with immigrants who speak little English
Nearly two-thirds of his supporters say they’re bothered when they meet immigrants who speak little to no English.
Trump
64%
Cruz
46%
Kasich
38%
Clinton
26%
Sanders
21%
Source | PRRI/The Atlantic April 2016 Poll
Many Trump supporters are uncomfortable
with immigrants
who speak little English
Nearly two-thirds of his supporters say they’re bothered when they meet immigrants
who speak little to no English.
Trump
64%
Cruz
46%
Kasich
38%
Clinton
26%
Sanders
21%
Source | PRRI/The Atlantic April 2016 Poll
The poll did find widespread opposition to one of Trump’s most well-known and controversial proposals: his call to temporarily ban all non-citizen Muslims from entering the U.S. “We see that being pretty soundly rejected across the board,” Jones said. Even among Trump supporters, fewer than half supported the Muslim ban.
At the same time, nearly two-thirds of Trump backers agreed with the statement that the nation has gone so far off the wrong track that it needs a leader “willing to break the rules” to set things right. Just four-in-10 Cruz supporters agreed with that statement, and fewer than half of the other candidates’ supporters did either.
Trump and Kasich supporters
are pushing the GOP left on taxes
For years, lowering taxes has been a key point of Republican orthodoxy. But Trump and Kasich
supporters have a higher-than-usual willingness
to consider tax hikes on the wealthy, bringing the GOP closer to the Democratic level of support.
Republicans
Democrats
Favor raising taxes
on high earners: 77%
Favor raising taxes
on high earners: 41%
In this election cycle, Cruz is the odd man out on taxation.
Candidate supporters who favor raising taxes
on high earners
Sanders
77%
Clinton
69%
Trump
48%
Kasich
47%
Cruz
39%
Source | PRRI/The Atlantic April 2016 Poll
Trump and Kasich
supporters are pushing the GOP left on taxes
For years, lowering taxes has been a key point of Republican orthodoxy. But Trump and Kasich supporters have a higher-than-usual willingness to consider tax hikes on
the wealthy, bringing the GOP closer to the Democratic level of support.
Republicans
Favor raising taxes
on high earners: 41%
Democrats
Favor raising taxes
on high earners: 77%
In this election cycle, Cruz is the odd man
out on taxation.
Candidate supporters who favor raising taxes
on high earners
Sanders
77%
Clinton
69%
Trump
48%
Kasich
47%
Cruz
39%
Source | PRRI/The Atlantic April 2016 Poll
The poll found a sharp divide among supporters of the two leading candidates in both parties, although there was more animosity on the GOP side. More than six-in-10 Trump supporters have an unfavorable view of Cruz, and a nearly identical percentage of Cruz supporters have an unfavorable view of Trump. Among Democrats, a majority of Clinton supporters have a favorable view of Sanders, while just 43 percent of Sanders backers have a favorable view of Clinton.
Few people like their candidate’s rival,
except for Clinton supporters
More than half of Clinton supporters like Sanders,
but that positive net favorability is unique among this field.
Cruz on Trump
Trump on Cruz
Favorable
Favorable
34%
31%
Unfavorable
Unfavorable
63%
66%
Don’t know
Don’t know
3%
3%
Sanders on Clinton
Clinton on Sanders
Favorable
Favorable
43%
53%
Unfavorable
Unfavorable
54%
35%
Don’t know
Don’t know
4%
11%
Source | PRRI/The Atlantic April 2016 Poll
Few people like their
candidate’s rival,
except for Clinton
supporters
More than half of Clinton supporters
like Sanders, but that positive net favorability is unique among this field.
Trump on Cruz
Favorable
31%
Unfavorable
66%
Don’t know
3%
Cruz on Trump
Favorable
34%
Unfavorable
63%
Don’t know
3%
Clinton on Sanders
Favorable
53%
Unfavorable
35%
Don’t know
11%
Sanders on Clinton
Favorable
43%
Unfavorable
54%
Don’t know
4%
Source | PRRI/The Atlantic April 2016 Poll
Donald Hoskin, a 77-year-old Trump supporter from Missouri, praised the businessman’s policies on immigration and trade. “He’s out of the Washington clique,” Hoskin said. He was less enamored of Cruz. “He’s a true politician,” Hoskin said of the Texas senator. “Sneaky.”
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