Donald Trump walked away from the Nevada Republican caucuses with a victory—and a new talking point for the campaign trail. CNN’s entrance polls found that 8 percent of caucus goers were Latino—and that 45 percent of them backed the real-estate mogul. The two Cuban American senators also seeking the Republican nomination trailed far behind. “You know what I am really happy about? I've been saying it for a long time: 46 percent with Hispanics, number one with Hispanics,” Trump exulted.
Latinos also made up 19 percent of Democratic caucus goers. The entrance polls showed Sanders appearing to take the lead among Latinos, coming out eight points ahead of Clinton. Shortly after the results rolled in, the Sanders camp sent a release to reporters titled “Sanders Wins Latino Vote in Nevada.”
Both boasts proved problematic. Edison Research, which conducted the Nevada entrance polls, interviewed people at 25 polling places across the state. Like other such polls, it’s subject to selection biases and problems with its sample sizes, which grow more acute for smaller subgroups like Latino voters. And an analysis by Nate Cohn at The New York Times found that in areas of Nevada where there was a greater concentration of Latinos, Clinton took the vote—strongly suggesting that the Democratic entrance poll got it backward.