Rep. Frank Guinta of New Hampshire already holds one of the swingiest seats in Congress, but he's made an especially strong case lately for being the most vulnerable incumbent in the country.
Guinta could face three primary challengers after agreeing in May to repay hundreds of thousands of dollars that his campaign had accepted in 2010. Fellow Republicans in the state say Guinta is now a long shot to win the nomination despite the potential for the anti-incumbent vote to be split.
Even if he won the primary, his prospects in the general don't appear any better.
Former state GOP Chairman Fergus Cullen pointed to an October poll by WMUR and the University of New Hampshire that found just 4 percent of the district’s likely voters said they will definitely vote for Guinta.
“He’s got a 4-percent hard reelect number," Cullen said. "I challenge you to find anyone ever in history as low as what his has been measured at."
Even among Republicans, only 5 percent said they would definitely vote for him, while 33 percent said they would definitely vote for his opponent. Another 33 percent said they would consider voting for Guinta, and 29 percent said they didn’t know.
Guinta’s 2014 primary opponent, hotelier Dan Innis, has launched a second campaign after taking 41 percent of the primary vote in 2014. Rich Ashooh, who ran unsuccessfully in 2010, told National Journal that he is “seriously considering” running. And state Rep. Pam Tucker has been courted as a potential candidate by a new consulting firm tied to Charles and David Koch, according to Politico.