Predicting the Next Ten Years in American Politics
Political insiders are asked about their predictions for the years ahead.
Q: Make one prediction about the next 10 years in American politics.
DEMOCRATS
GOP Discord
“The national Republican Party continues to disintegrate.”
Party Control
“The Democrats will rebound locally.”
Third Party
“The Republican Party splits in two.”
“Our immense partisan divide will finally lead to a rise in a real third party. Or both the Democratic and Republican parties will split into two parts, the extreme and the sane pieces.”
“There will be consistent viable independent candidates in statewide races in reaction to the hyper-partisanship of the two main political parties. But, because of gerrymandered districts, legislative and congressional races will be dominated by the two main parties.”
“The emergence of a third party based upon somewhat conservative economic principles, social tolerance, and strong national security.”
“At least one of the major parties will fracture off its fringe wing and run a viable third-party presidential candidate.”
“More independents are elected and a legitimate independent runs for president, but there won’t be enough agreement for an independent party.”
Presidential Predictions
“A Clinton-Ryan gridlock will lead to a Clinton-Ryan 2020 campaign. The race will be about who caused
the recession.”
“America will elect its first female president in 2016, and by 2024, its first Hispanic.”
“Arizona will vote Democratic in the presidential election.”
“New Hampshire and Iowa will remain first in the presidential primary process.”
Demographics
“More nonwhite voters will be registered to vote than white voters.”
“Women will dominate electoral politics as an answer to massive dysfunction.”
Gridlock
“Social media is going to continue to disrupt the status quo—in a bad way. As balkanized as things are today, they are going to get worse as narrow special interests use social media to bully and agitate to get their way.”
“More gridlock, lower turnout.”
“We will come to our senses. A responsible conservative party will reconstitute itself, and together with those who then lead the Obama coalition, a new pragmatic consensus on foreign and domestic policy will [emerge].”
Guns
“We will take on gun control.”
“There will be a substantial increase in violence by gun[s].”
Online Voting
“Trusted technology will exist to allow secure online voting. The Republicans will oppose it. In 20 years, the majority of Americans will vote for president online.”
Q: Make one prediction about the next 10 years in American politics.
REPUBLICANS
Future of the GOP
“Republicans will either flourish due to nominating Rubio or will cease to function as a credible national party due to the nomination of Trump.”
Party Control
“Republicans take over more and more local governments around the nation.”
“GOP will control the House that whole 10 years. GOP will control the Senate at least eight of the 10 years.”
Third Party
“A viable third political party will rise, causing one of the current two parties (likely the GOP) to atrophy to the point it is no longer competitive.”
“Neither Dems nor GOP will have a majority in either chamber. Independents, third-party groups will continue to grow. [Government] by coalition will first appear in USA by mid-’20s.”
“An independent candidate will win the presidency.”
Presidential Predictions
“President Marco Rubio will have completed two successful terms as president.”
“The Republican Party will not win another presidential election in my lifetime.”
“Iowa and New Hampshire can kiss their first-in-the-nation status goodbye. The rest of America is tired of seeing every presidential candidate visit every yogurt shop and hardware store in these states while ignoring others except to raise money.”
“The Republican Party will nominate someone other than a white male for president.”
Demographics
“Republicans will adapt more quickly than anyone thinks possible at the moment to the demographic changes and challenges of the New America.”
“By 2026, at least 20 percent of African-Americans will be voting Republican.”
Campaign Finance
“The Supreme Court will reinterpret its legal fiction regarding super PACs, and campaign funding will return to its more traditional model.”
“All limits on campaign finance will be eliminated, save for immediate and complete reporting.”
“Elections will continue to get more expensive, more money will be raised, and campaigning will start even earlier. There will come the time that the public will rise up and say, ‘Enough is enough.’ ”
Microtargeting
“Broadcast advertising will decline in importance and as a percentage of campaign budgets, as campaigns microtarget voters instead.”
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Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chávez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.
GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O’Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk Van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.