U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) speaks during a news conference.  National Journal

Q: Which incumbent U.S. senator is the most likely to lose his or her reelection in 2016?

DEMOCRATS (68 VOTES)Ron Johnson: 34%Mark Kirk: 31%Kelly Ayotte: 15%Pat Toomey: 10%Rob Portman: 4%John McCain: 3%Michael Bennet: 2%Richard Burr: 1%

Ron Johnson

"Wisconsin swings back and forth. In a presidential year, it's forth. Sorry, Ron."

"Weak senator, weak candidate, tough state, tough year."

"Johnson has made no mark during his term nor any real connection to voters at home—he's a big bowl of nothing."

+ Sen. Mark Kirk (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)Mark Kirk

"Illinois is the most Democratic state where Democrats also have a strong candidate."

"Presidential election cycle in Illinois creates turnout that makes Kirk's reelection chances easily the worst in 2016."

"Illinois is a blue state in a presidential year. Tammy Duckworth is a strong candidate. Not a slam dunk, but she can win."

"Kirk has followed the McConnell line too often to achieve the independent image he will need to survive Hillary's down-ballot tide in Illinois."

Kelly Ayotte

"If Governor Maggie Hassan challenges her with Hillary Clinton topping the ticket in NH, she is toast."

Pat Toomey

"Out of step with state, undistinguished record."

Rob Portman

"In a presidential election year, a big turnout of the ascendant majority of young and black voters should send Hillary Clinton to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. and Rob Portman to K St."

Q: Which incumbent U.S. senator is the most likely to lose his or her reelection in 2016?

REPUBLICANS (63 votes)Mark Kirk: 43%Ron Johnson: 32%Michael Bennet: 13%Pat Toomey: 11%Kelly Ayotte: 1%Rob Portman: 0%Richard Burr: 0%John McCain: 0%

Mark Kirk

"Health issues aside, Kirk faces an uphill climb in very blue Illinois."

"The worst place to run, and, yes, the stroke matters if they lose control of the perception that he's recovering."

"Illinois continues to be a challenging state for Republicans, even an incumbent such as Kirk."

"Bluest state in play."

"He's the best we could possibly have, but even that won't be enough."

"Won't be for a lack of effort, but it's over."

Ron Johnson

"Tough state. Tough opponent. Zero accomplishments."

"Even with Walker at the top of the ticket, defending this seat creates the greatest structural and tactical challenge in the cycle."

"He's the most ideologically out of sync with his state."

Michael Bennet

"He has always been an accidental fluke, and that reality catches up with him in 2016."

Kelly Ayotte

"New Hampshire is going blue in the presidential race, and if Governor Hassan runs, Ayotte will likely come up short."

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders  Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chávez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders  Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk Van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud

Q: Which incumbent U.S. senator is the most likely to lose his or her reelection in 2016?

DEMOCRATS (68 VOTES)Ron Johnson: 34%Mark Kirk: 31%Kelly Ayotte: 15%Pat Toomey: 10%Rob Portman: 4%John McCain: 3%Michael Bennet: 2%Richard Burr: 1%

Ron Johnson

"Wisconsin swings back and forth. In a presidential year, it's forth. Sorry, Ron."

"Weak senator, weak candidate, tough state, tough year."

"Johnson has made no mark during his term nor any real connection to voters at home—he's a big bowl of nothing."

+ Sen. Mark Kirk (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)Mark Kirk

"Illinois is the most Democratic state where Democrats also have a strong candidate."

"Presidential election cycle in Illinois creates turnout that makes Kirk's reelection chances easily the worst in 2016."

"Illinois is a blue state in a presidential year. Tammy Duckworth is a strong candidate. Not a slam dunk, but she can win."

"Kirk has followed the McConnell line too often to achieve the independent image he will need to survive Hillary's down-ballot tide in Illinois."

Kelly Ayotte

"If Governor Maggie Hassan challenges her with Hillary Clinton topping the ticket in NH, she is toast."

Pat Toomey

"Out of step with state, undistinguished record."

Rob Portman

"In a presidential election year, a big turnout of the ascendant majority of young and black voters should send Hillary Clinton to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. and Rob Portman to K St."

Q: Which incumbent U.S. senator is the most likely to lose his or her reelection in 2016?

REPUBLICANS (63 votes)Mark Kirk: 43%Ron Johnson: 32%Michael Bennet: 13%Pat Toomey: 11%Kelly Ayotte: 1%Rob Portman: 0%Richard Burr: 0%John McCain: 0%

Mark Kirk

"Health issues aside, Kirk faces an uphill climb in very blue Illinois."

"The worst place to run, and, yes, the stroke matters if they lose control of the perception that he's recovering."

"Illinois continues to be a challenging state for Republicans, even an incumbent such as Kirk."

"Bluest state in play."

"He's the best we could possibly have, but even that won't be enough."

"Won't be for a lack of effort, but it's over."

Ron Johnson

"Tough state. Tough opponent. Zero accomplishments."

"Even with Walker at the top of the ticket, defending this seat creates the greatest structural and tactical challenge in the cycle."

"He's the most ideologically out of sync with his state."

Michael Bennet

"He has always been an accidental fluke, and that reality catches up with him in 2016."

Kelly Ayotte

"New Hampshire is going blue in the presidential race, and if Governor Hassan runs, Ayotte will likely come up short."

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders  Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chávez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders  Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk Van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud

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