National Journal

Q: With both parties taking strong positions on spending bills in the Senate, how likely is another government shutdown?

DEMOCRATS (83 VOTES) (JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)Very likely: 11%Somewhat likely: 40%Not at all likely: 49%

Very likely

"It is going to happen. Only way to get rid of sequester."

"Sadly, we will flirt with yet another showdown before finally coming to terms with our fiscal needs."

"Rational governance appears to be a thing of the past—as in a long time past."

Somewhat likely

"You can never tell with these guys— nothing is sacred and politics rules the day, so anything is possible."

"There seems to be no search for common ground. Scorched-earth Rs vs. uncompromising Ds."

"The Senate Democrats have little incentive to support McConnell and the gutting of medical research and education."

Not at all likely

"The GOP has learned their lessons and how it hurts them."

"Message from GOP: Lesson learned. We can govern."

"In December, the omnibus to end them all will pass. No one wants a shutdown, so a deal will get done."

"Not happening—nobody gains and nobody is stupid enough this time to push it."

"All eyes are focused on 2016, and shutdowns won't get the offending party there."

Q: With both parties taking strong positions on spending bills in the Senate, how likely is another government shutdown?

DEMOCRATS (83 VOTES) (JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)Very likely: 11%Somewhat likely: 40%Not at all likely: 49%

Very likely

"It is going to happen. Only way to get rid of sequester."

"Sadly, we will flirt with yet another showdown before finally coming to terms with our fiscal needs."

"Rational governance appears to be a thing of the past—as in a long time past."

Somewhat likely

"You can never tell with these guys— nothing is sacred and politics rules the day, so anything is possible."

"There seems to be no search for common ground. Scorched-earth Rs vs. uncompromising Ds."

"The Senate Democrats have little incentive to support McConnell and the gutting of medical research and education."

Not at all likely

"The GOP has learned their lessons and how it hurts them."

"Message from GOP: Lesson learned. We can govern."

"In December, the omnibus to end them all will pass. No one wants a shutdown, so a deal will get done."

"Not happening—nobody gains and nobody is stupid enough this time to push it."

"All eyes are focused on 2016, and shutdowns won't get the offending party there."

Q: With both parties taking strong positions on spending bills in the Senate, how likely is another government shutdown?

REPUBLICANS (86 VOTES)Very likely      6%Somewhat likely        29%Not at all likely           65%

Very likely

"Enough folks on both sides of the aisle think it ends up working for them come election time."

"The Democrats remain committed to painting the GOP as being rich and out of touch. They will force a government shutdown to 'fight' for higher spending, which will never pass the Congress."

"Democrats watched Ted Cruz set himself on fire and learned nothing—now it's their turn."

Somewhat likely

"If Dems think they can use it and make sure the GOP gets the blame. A dangerous play."

"Ted Cruz will shut government down again to raise money for his presidential campaign."

"Obama and Hillary both want one."

"Going into a presidential election, both parties will be risk averse to a shutdown but will pursue it if the other side gets blamed."

"It will get ugly but highly doubtful that R leadership will allow that to happen. And now that the president owes his victory on TPA to Republicans, expect that he will have to repay with a budget deal."

"Elevated risk level is the new normal."

Not at all likely

"We've learned our lesson. I hope."

"Republican leadership will capitulate before a shutdown; that's a standing promise from McConnell."

"There's no way Repubs will let Cruz et al. lead them over the cliff again."

"As a Republican, this may be more a prayer than a prediction. However, history shows the public hates [shutdowns] and blames Republicans—every time."

"Fool me four times"¦ Nah, even we aren't that stupid."

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders  Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chávez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders  Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk Van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

Q: With both parties taking strong positions on spending bills in the Senate, how likely is another government shutdown?

REPUBLICANS (86 VOTES)Very likely      6%Somewhat likely        29%Not at all likely           65%

Very likely

"Enough folks on both sides of the aisle think it ends up working for them come election time."

"The Democrats remain committed to painting the GOP as being rich and out of touch. They will force a government shutdown to 'fight' for higher spending, which will never pass the Congress."

"Democrats watched Ted Cruz set himself on fire and learned nothing—now it's their turn."

Somewhat likely

"If Dems think they can use it and make sure the GOP gets the blame. A dangerous play."

"Ted Cruz will shut government down again to raise money for his presidential campaign."

"Obama and Hillary both want one."

"Going into a presidential election, both parties will be risk averse to a shutdown but will pursue it if the other side gets blamed."

"It will get ugly but highly doubtful that R leadership will allow that to happen. And now that the president owes his victory on TPA to Republicans, expect that he will have to repay with a budget deal."

"Elevated risk level is the new normal."

Not at all likely

"We've learned our lesson. I hope."

"Republican leadership will capitulate before a shutdown; that's a standing promise from McConnell."

"There's no way Repubs will let Cruz et al. lead them over the cliff again."

"As a Republican, this may be more a prayer than a prediction. However, history shows the public hates [shutdowns] and blames Republicans—every time."

"Fool me four times"¦ Nah, even we aren't that stupid."

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders  Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chávez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders  Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk Van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

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