This article is from the archive of our partner National Journal

Q: How much of a factor will Hillary Clinton's gender be in the 2016 presidential race?

Democratic presidential candidate and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks at Rancho High School on May 5, 2015 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)DEMOCRATS (82 VOTES)

A lot: 43%Some: 48%Very little: 8%None: 1%

A lot

"Just because we had an historic barrier-breaking presidential candidate the last two times doesn't make this any less significant."

"There is a huge constituency that wants to see the ultimate glass ceiling broken."

"College campuses are really excited about her in large part because they think it's time for a woman president."

"The GOP just can't help itself when it comes to women's issues, from pay to health, and they are certain to become a gaffe-factory if she's the nominee."

"Own it this time, Hill."

Some

"As a contrast against a mostly male Republican field, it will help, though other factors are vastly more important."

"There are a couple generations of women ready for this ... and they will be a force behind the candidate; will it be enough to offset the hate?"

"A contributing factor—more positive than negative—but doesn't replace her need to present her own vision of the nation."

"There are voters that will absolutely vote for her based on her gender, but it's more likely there are a lot more men that will vote against her because she is a woman."

Very little

"The social-science research is very clear that the gender of the candidates is not a predictor of the vote. The voters most excited about a woman candidate are female Democrats, who would vote for whomever the Democratic Party nominates."

REPUBLICANS (79 VOTES)

A lot: 46%Some: 46%Very little: 7%None: 1%

A lot

"It's not a factor—it's the only factor."

"A lot if GOP nominates a white guy; none if they nominate a minority or a woman."

"Breaking the glass ceiling is her strongest suit—if she were a man, this would be a far different race."

"You can bet that the Clinton fortress will include arguing to vote against her is to be anti-woman."

"If Bill Clinton had a brother with a lackluster record of achievement, a penchant for secrecy, limited political skills, and low likability, he would not be the Democrats' only option."

"If female voters turn on her, she's done."

"As Republicans tack harshly to the past, especially in support of restrictions on reproduction rights and marriage equality, the country will again likely view the election of a 'first' as a watershed moment for America's future."

Some

"But not as much as she'd like."

"There's undoubtedly a segment of women [for whom] this is the deciding factor."

"There's always a thirst for 'firsts,' but [Obama] has nearly quenched it."

"She's run before and been a major national player for 25 years. The novelty has worn off."

"What if men decide to only vote for men? This whole premise is a bad road but unfortunately part of the liberal narrative, and it works."

Very little

"It will get her some votes, but it will mostly be about her record as an individual rather than her [as a] representative of a class. Most female votes will be anti-Republican rather than pro-[Hillary]."

None

"Email servers are gender neutral."

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders  Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders  Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud. 

Q: How much of a factor will Hillary Clinton's gender be in the 2016 presidential race?

Democratic presidential candidate and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks at Rancho High School on May 5, 2015 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)DEMOCRATS (82 VOTES)

A lot: 43%Some: 48%Very little: 8%None: 1%

A lot

"Just because we had an historic barrier-breaking presidential candidate the last two times doesn't make this any less significant."

"There is a huge constituency that wants to see the ultimate glass ceiling broken."

"College campuses are really excited about her in large part because they think it's time for a woman president."

"The GOP just can't help itself when it comes to women's issues, from pay to health, and they are certain to become a gaffe-factory if she's the nominee."

"Own it this time, Hill."

Some

"As a contrast against a mostly male Republican field, it will help, though other factors are vastly more important."

"There are a couple generations of women ready for this ... and they will be a force behind the candidate; will it be enough to offset the hate?"

"A contributing factor—more positive than negative—but doesn't replace her need to present her own vision of the nation."

"There are voters that will absolutely vote for her based on her gender, but it's more likely there are a lot more men that will vote against her because she is a woman."

Very little

"The social-science research is very clear that the gender of the candidates is not a predictor of the vote. The voters most excited about a woman candidate are female Democrats, who would vote for whomever the Democratic Party nominates."

REPUBLICANS (79 VOTES)

A lot: 46%Some: 46%Very little: 7%None: 1%

A lot

"It's not a factor—it's the only factor."

"A lot if GOP nominates a white guy; none if they nominate a minority or a woman."

"Breaking the glass ceiling is her strongest suit—if she were a man, this would be a far different race."

"You can bet that the Clinton fortress will include arguing to vote against her is to be anti-woman."

"If Bill Clinton had a brother with a lackluster record of achievement, a penchant for secrecy, limited political skills, and low likability, he would not be the Democrats' only option."

"If female voters turn on her, she's done."

"As Republicans tack harshly to the past, especially in support of restrictions on reproduction rights and marriage equality, the country will again likely view the election of a 'first' as a watershed moment for America's future."

Some

"But not as much as she'd like."

"There's undoubtedly a segment of women [for whom] this is the deciding factor."

"There's always a thirst for 'firsts,' but [Obama] has nearly quenched it."

"She's run before and been a major national player for 25 years. The novelty has worn off."

"What if men decide to only vote for men? This whole premise is a bad road but unfortunately part of the liberal narrative, and it works."

Very little

"It will get her some votes, but it will mostly be about her record as an individual rather than her [as a] representative of a class. Most female votes will be anti-Republican rather than pro-[Hillary]."

None

"Email servers are gender neutral."

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders  Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders  Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud. 

This article is from the archive of our partner National Journal.

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