This series on the key states for the 2016 presidential election is based on historical data and future projections provided to Next America by States of Change: Demographics and Democracy. The States of Change project is a collaboration supported by the Hewlett Foundation that brings together the Center for American Progress, the American Enterprise Institute, and demographer William Frey of the Brookings Institution. The project is directed by Ruy Teixeira of the Center for American Progress and Karlyn Bowman of the American Enterprise institute.
In a statement to Next America, the States of Change Project explained its program as follows:
The goals of the project are: (1) to document and analyze the challenges to democracy posed by the rapid demographic evolution of the United States, from the 1970's to the year 2060; and (2) to promote a wide-ranging and bipartisan discussion of America's demographic future and what it portends for the political parties and the policy challenges they (and the country) face.
Results from the first year of the project include:
"¢ Trend analysis of 40 years of demographic change in United States, 1974-2014, nationally and in every state, particularly as it has affected the pool of eligible voters
"¢ Projections of the racial composition of every state to the year 2060, both overall and by eligible voters
These findings are being released in several ways, first through this collaboration with National Journal/Next America. There will also be a detailed report discussing our national and state results over the entire 1974-2060 period and an interactive web feature that will allow users to trace the demographic evolution of any state's electorate by a variety of different characteristics. The report and interactive feature will be released on or around February 24, when a public conference will be held at AEI to present and discuss the project's findings.
All the historical data used in these are taken from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. States of Change analyzed the data for each relevant year from the Voter Supplement of the November survey. The stories examine two sets of results. The first is eligible voters-that is, the share of the state population that is over 18 and a citizen in each demographic category. The second is actual voters, the share of the state population in each demographic category that actually voted, according to the Census survey.