Senate Minority Leader Senator Harry Reid leaves a meeting with Senate Democrats on Capitol Hill January 20, 2015 in Washington, D.C.National Journal

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Q: Who is the most vulnerable senator up for reelection in 2016?

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid leaves a meeting with Senate Democrats on Capitol Hill on Jan. 20. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images)DEMOCRATS (81 VOTES)

Harry Reid: 27%Mark Kirk: 26%Pat Toomey: 16%Kelly Ayotte: 15%Ron Johnson: 15%Rob Portman: 1%Michael Bennet: 0%

Harry Reid

"Reid gets more and more vulnerable by the day. Sandoval will be a giant-slayer."

"If Reid doesn't decide to retire, he's a good bet to be taken down in a presidential year. His health issues insulate him from a primary, but in a general—he's a goner."

"He's lost his power-and-influence argument, and long ago lost any new ideas or ability to create excitement around his candidacy."

Mark Kirk

"Navy blue state, presidential year, Illinois native at the top of the Dem ticket. Good luck with that, Mark."

"Illinois presidential turnout is going to make Kirk's reelection really tough."

"Recently embarrassed himself on climate change. If he continues to act like he shouldn't be there, he won't be."

"If [Democratic Rep. Tammy] Duckworth runs, Kirk's No. 1 out the door."

Pat Toomey

"Pennsylvania likely to be a good state for Hillary, which means it's a bad state for a freshman Republican  senator like Pat Toomey."

Kelly Ayotte

"New Hampshire in a presidential year? Go Dems."

Ron Johnson

"He has made a minimal impact in the Senate and in Wisconsin. He's a loser unless the Democrats have a bitter primary that gives him a second wind."

Q: Who is the most vulnerable senator up for reelection in 2016?

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid leaves a meeting with Senate Democrats on Capitol Hill on Jan. 20. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images)DEMOCRATS (81 VOTES)

Harry Reid: 27%Mark Kirk: 26%Pat Toomey: 16%Kelly Ayotte: 15%Ron Johnson: 15%Rob Portman: 1%Michael Bennet: 0%

Harry Reid

"Reid gets more and more vulnerable by the day. Sandoval will be a giant-slayer."

"If Reid doesn't decide to retire, he's a good bet to be taken down in a presidential year. His health issues insulate him from a primary, but in a general—he's a goner."

"He's lost his power-and-influence argument, and long ago lost any new ideas or ability to create excitement around his candidacy."

Mark Kirk

"Navy blue state, presidential year, Illinois native at the top of the Dem ticket. Good luck with that, Mark."

"Illinois presidential turnout is going to make Kirk's reelection really tough."

"Recently embarrassed himself on climate change. If he continues to act like he shouldn't be there, he won't be."

"If [Democratic Rep. Tammy] Duckworth runs, Kirk's No. 1 out the door."

Pat Toomey

"Pennsylvania likely to be a good state for Hillary, which means it's a bad state for a freshman Republican  senator like Pat Toomey."

Kelly Ayotte

"New Hampshire in a presidential year? Go Dems."

Ron Johnson

"He has made a minimal impact in the Senate and in Wisconsin. He's a loser unless the Democrats have a bitter primary that gives him a second wind."

Q: Who is the most vulnerable senator up for reelection in 2016?

REPUBLICANS (88 VOTES)

Harry Reid: 42%Mark Kirk: 25%Ron Johnson: 15%Pat Toomey: 13%Kelly Ayotte: 2%Michael Bennet: 2%Rob Portman: 1%

Harry Reid

"If Gov. Sandoval runs, Reid is toast."

"Reid hit the jackpot last time running against a candidate who was crazier than he is."

"Hopefully, he will not be able to select his opponent again."

"Time's up."

"There is no force so weak as a politician whose time has gone."

Mark Kirk

"Illinois, presidential year, health concerns—doesn't get much worse than that."

Ron Johnson

"He has the same personality deficiencies of Mary Landrieu, so his party isn't likely to bail him out when he needs help—and he will."

"He's probably done the least to put a brand on his name."

Pat Toomey

"Toomey hasn't created deep roots to withstand a Democratic challenge in blue Pennsylvania."

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders  Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders  Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

Q: Who is the most vulnerable senator up for reelection in 2016?

REPUBLICANS (88 VOTES)

Harry Reid: 42%Mark Kirk: 25%Ron Johnson: 15%Pat Toomey: 13%Kelly Ayotte: 2%Michael Bennet: 2%Rob Portman: 1%

Harry Reid

"If Gov. Sandoval runs, Reid is toast."

"Reid hit the jackpot last time running against a candidate who was crazier than he is."

"Hopefully, he will not be able to select his opponent again."

"Time's up."

"There is no force so weak as a politician whose time has gone."

Mark Kirk

"Illinois, presidential year, health concerns—doesn't get much worse than that."

Ron Johnson

"He has the same personality deficiencies of Mary Landrieu, so his party isn't likely to bail him out when he needs help—and he will."

"He's probably done the least to put a brand on his name."

Pat Toomey

"Toomey hasn't created deep roots to withstand a Democratic challenge in blue Pennsylvania."

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders  Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders  Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

This article is from the archive of our partner National Journal.

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