Louisiana: The other good shot at a runoff is in Louisiana, where Democrat Mary Landrieu is trying to fend off challenges to her seat from Representative Bill Cassidy and Rob Maness, two Republicans. No candidate seems likely to win an outright majority, setting up a December runoff between the top two candidates, which would seem to favor Cassidy.
New Hampshire: Can Scott Brown make magic happen twice—in two different states? In January 2010, he won a special election for Ted Kennedy's old seat in Massachusetts; lost it to Elizabeth Warren in 2012; then moved to New Hampshire and announced he'd challenge Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen. Brown's campaign long seemed hapless and listless, but he's closed the gap in the final weeks. Shaheen seems to have a slight edge, but the race is close.
North Carolina: This is a good race to watch early today. If Republican Thom Tillis wins the state, Democratic chances at holding the Senate shrink to virtually nothing. But Senator Kay Hagan has run a tight campaign and has a slight edge in most polls against Tillis, who has struggled against the unpopularity of the GOP-controlled state legislature in which he is a leader.
Gubernatorial Races to Watch
Alaska: This is another head-scratcher. Incumbent Republican Sean Parnell has fallen behind in polls to a fusion ticket of independent Bill Walker, running with a Democratic lieutenant-governor candidate. Walker even won the endorsement of Sarah Palin—whom Parnell once served as lieutenant governor. Prior caveats about Alaska polling apply.
Colorado: John Hickenlooper ran for office as a different kind of Democrat—a relentlessly positive former businessman and moderate. But he's found himself taking a series of liberal stands that have endangered him against Republican Bob Beauprez. Hickenlooper has maintained a tiny but consistent lead; his fortunes could be tied to Senator Mark Udall.
Connecticut: Even in a consistently blue state, Democrat Dan Malloy has struggled against Republican Tom Foley in a 2010 rematch. That race was extremely close, and this one promises to be as well.
Florida: The question for many Florida voters seems to be not which candidate they like more, but which they hate more. Republican Rick Scott is one of the least-liked governors in the nation, but he's facing off against Charlie Crist, who was already governor—as a Republican—and is often derided as an unprincipled opportunist. Crist has held a small lead in recent polls.
Georgia: In the undercard of Democrats' dynastic push in the Peach State, Jason Carter—grandson of former President Jimmy—is trying to unseat Governor Nathan Deal. Deal has been shaky, but looks likely to hold on.
Illinois: Governor Pat Quinn could pull off one of the most remarkable recoveries in recent memory today. Quinn probably shouldn't have even made it out of a Democratic primary, and he entered the general-election race against Bruce Rauner—a wealthy businessman—as the underdog. In the final weeks of the campaign, Quinn has nosed out ahead of a vulnerable Rauner in a blue state.