Less than a month before Election Day, dozens of House races are still in flux—but Democratic incumbents face far more coin tosses than Republicans, meaning the GOP is likely to expand its majority in the House of Representatives this November. Republicans expect moderate gains this cycle, using a favorable political climate to attack a slew of Democratic freshmen and add to their already solid majority. But few of those districts are obvious wins: Democratic incumbents like Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshire, Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona, and Bill Enyart of Illinois—among the most endangered Democrats on the ballot—still have roughly 50-50 shots at being reelected, according to a survey of strategists from both sides who are watching and working on these races.
Republicans have a large number of pickup opportunities to choose from this year. Fifteen of our 30 top races are districts where Republican challengers have legitimate shots at beating Democratic incumbents. That's in addition to two safe bets for the GOP and nine other open-seat races.
Democrats, meanwhile, are on offense in a select number of districts, hoping to pick off several seats where Republican incumbents have tripped over their own feet. In New York, Rep. Michael Grimm's fraud indictments dealt his reelection prospects a heavy blow. In Florida, Rep. Steve Southerland's gender-centric gaffes may have alienated women voters, making Gwen Graham an even stronger challenger—and Republicans already knew the political scion was a threat. And in Nebraska, Rep. Lee Terry's refusal to give up his own pay during last year's government shutdown continues to be an anchor on his reelection hopes.