Politics

Poll: How Will the Decision to Delay Keystone XL Affect Your Party's Prospects in November?

By Michael Catalini, Sarah Mimms, Peter Bell, and National Journal
Participants in the protests carry a giant faux pipeline across from the North Lawn of the White House on Sunday Nov. 6, 2011. (National Journal)
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Does the decision to delay the Keystone XL pipeline help, hurt, or have no effect on your party's prospects in November?

DEMOCRATS (89 VOTES)

Help: 24%
Hurt: 23%
No effect: 53%

Help

"Helps because if he approved it now, could hurt turnout among the base. Those Dems who support it can bang the president; those opposed can lobby the administration to block it."

"Good for the base."

"Tap dancing in place would seem to be the order of the day, with post-midterm approval expected."

"Red-state Dems can claim victory on the delay, and the enviros can still organize around the threat."

Hurt

"While it mollifies the environmental base, it adds to the narrative of Democratic fecklessness, here and abroad."

"We need to pass it. We are making great progress on clean, affordable energy. Keep it going."

"The Democratic base is not affected, no matter what Tom Steyer wants, but independents are further compromised."

"The voters just see this as jobs, jobs, jobs; and we're standing in the way. I wish the spotted owls voted in midterms."

No effect

"Nobody outside of the coastal elites and some folks in the states where it would go really care."

"It cuts both ways. It gives advocates a cudgel with which to hammer the president and prove their distance, and it keeps opponents fully engaged through the elections."

"No decision means no impact."

Does the decision to delay the Keystone XL pipeline help, hurt, or have no effect on your party's prospects in November?

DEMOCRATS (89 VOTES)

Help: 24%
Hurt: 23%
No effect: 53%

Help

"Helps because if he approved it now, could hurt turnout among the base. Those Dems who support it can bang the president; those opposed can lobby the administration to block it."

"Good for the base."

"Tap dancing in place would seem to be the order of the day, with post-midterm approval expected."

"Red-state Dems can claim victory on the delay, and the enviros can still organize around the threat."

Hurt

"While it mollifies the environmental base, it adds to the narrative of Democratic fecklessness, here and abroad."

"We need to pass it. We are making great progress on clean, affordable energy. Keep it going."

"The Democratic base is not affected, no matter what Tom Steyer wants, but independents are further compromised."

"The voters just see this as jobs, jobs, jobs; and we're standing in the way. I wish the spotted owls voted in midterms."

No effect

"Nobody outside of the coastal elites and some folks in the states where it would go really care."

"It cuts both ways. It gives advocates a cudgel with which to hammer the president and prove their distance, and it keeps opponents fully engaged through the elections."

"No decision means no impact."

Does the decision to delay the Keystone XL pipeline help, hurt, or have no effect on your party's prospects in November?

REPUBLICANS (98 Votes)

Help: 75%
Hurt: 12%
No effect: 13%

Help

"It further demoralizes part of the Democratic base — labor unions and others interested in economic growth."

"Shows that he favors environmentalists over jobs. Will particularly hurt Landrieu, Begich, Pryor, Walsh, and Hagan."

" 'Drill, baby, drill' is an easy slogan for GOP volunteers to remember, and it works."

"Obama has pivoted to everything but creating jobs during his tenure."

"In many key states, it's one more data point about how this administration doesn't get it when it comes to job creation and economic growth."

"Dem candidates will say they oppose the administration, but they cannot hide from it."

"The administration looks both political and weak with the decision to delay Keystone."

"A dithering administration is a benefit for our side."

"Keystone will be an issue in some key races, but his lack of leadership will be a theme around the country."

"It creates a very positive policy contrast for Republicans that encompasses the huge issue of jobs/economy."

"It blunts the anti-Koch rhetoric of the left by pandering to Steyer."

Hurt

"When you can use the unions against the president, it's never a good day for the home team."

No effect

"Dumb policy-wise, but real voters aren't making decisions based on Keystone."

"Most people don't care about Keystone."

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

Does the decision to delay the Keystone XL pipeline help, hurt, or have no effect on your party's prospects in November?

REPUBLICANS (98 Votes)

Help: 75%
Hurt: 12%
No effect: 13%

Help

"It further demoralizes part of the Democratic base — labor unions and others interested in economic growth."

"Shows that he favors environmentalists over jobs. Will particularly hurt Landrieu, Begich, Pryor, Walsh, and Hagan."

" 'Drill, baby, drill' is an easy slogan for GOP volunteers to remember, and it works."

"Obama has pivoted to everything but creating jobs during his tenure."

"In many key states, it's one more data point about how this administration doesn't get it when it comes to job creation and economic growth."

"Dem candidates will say they oppose the administration, but they cannot hide from it."

"The administration looks both political and weak with the decision to delay Keystone."

"A dithering administration is a benefit for our side."

"Keystone will be an issue in some key races, but his lack of leadership will be a theme around the country."

"It creates a very positive policy contrast for Republicans that encompasses the huge issue of jobs/economy."

"It blunts the anti-Koch rhetoric of the left by pandering to Steyer."

Hurt

"When you can use the unions against the president, it's never a good day for the home team."

No effect

"Dumb policy-wise, but real voters aren't making decisions based on Keystone."

"Most people don't care about Keystone."

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.