Politics

Poll: How Likely Are Republicans to Take Over the Senate in 2014?

By Michael Catalini, Sarah Mimms, Peter Bell, and National Journal

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are Republicans to take over the Senate in 2014?

DEMOCRATS (90 VOTES)

February 2014: Average 4.6, 20% (slight), 69% (moderate), 11% (strong)
August 2013: Average 4.0, 42% (slight), 53% (moderate), 5% (strong)
February 2013: Average 3.3, 55% (slight), 39% (moderate), 6% (strong)

Key: slight (0-3); moderate (4-6); strong (7-10)

0-3

"This media narrative is baffling; have you seen the GOP approval numbers?"

"Six seats, even with this map, means a wave election."

4-6

"It's doable, but they have more competitive seats to hold than they appreciate."

"They have all their eggs in the Obamacare basket — very risky strategy when they have nothing else to offer voters."

"Total jump ball. The Dems do not have the strong candidates that they did in the last cycle."

7-10

"Once again, it will come down to the candidates they field for the general."

"Democrats have weak pickup opportunities and too many seats to protect. We need some Todd Akins to rescue us."

"They have a good chance, but as they demonstrated in 2010 and again in 2012, they also have a good chance of screwing it up."

"Obamacare is going to be death by a thousand cuts."

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are Republicans to take over the Senate in 2014?

REPUBLICANS (96 VOTES)

February 2014: Average 6.4, 4% (slight), 44% (moderate), 52% (strong)
August 2013: Average 5.3, 16% (slight), 63% (moderate), 21% (strong)
February 2013: Average 4.8, 24% (slight), 62% (moderate), 14% (strong)

Key: slight (0-3); moderate (4-6); strong (7-10)

0-3

"We will lose two of our own, some way, some how. That will be the difference."

4-6

"Obama could probably save Landrieu, Begich, and the Senate with a Keystone approval, but how much inner Frank Underwood does he have in him?"

"No one seems to be pulling ahead. And the strategies of each individual candidate are from the same ole playbook."

"Republicans clearly have the wind at their backs, but that notwithstanding they still have to virtually run the table in order to capture control. I do believe that a net gain of four seats is a virtual certainty."

"Still a Democratic edge, but waning a bit."

"Uphill but doable. Obama-fatigue is setting in throughout the country and in the Senate."

7-10

"They started with cruel math, now the president and his signature legislation are a millstone."

"More likely than the Caps winning the cup in 2015, but less likely than the Nats winning the World Series."

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are Republicans to take over the Senate in 2014?

DEMOCRATS (90 VOTES)

February 2014: Average 4.6, 20% (slight), 69% (moderate), 11% (strong)
August 2013: Average 4.0, 42% (slight), 53% (moderate), 5% (strong)
February 2013: Average 3.3, 55% (slight), 39% (moderate), 6% (strong)

Key: slight (0-3); moderate (4-6); strong (7-10)

0-3

"This media narrative is baffling; have you seen the GOP approval numbers?"

"Six seats, even with this map, means a wave election."

4-6

"It's doable, but they have more competitive seats to hold than they appreciate."

"They have all their eggs in the Obamacare basket — very risky strategy when they have nothing else to offer voters."

"Total jump ball. The Dems do not have the strong candidates that they did in the last cycle."

7-10

"Once again, it will come down to the candidates they field for the general."

"Democrats have weak pickup opportunities and too many seats to protect. We need some Todd Akins to rescue us."

"They have a good chance, but as they demonstrated in 2010 and again in 2012, they also have a good chance of screwing it up."

"Obamacare is going to be death by a thousand cuts."

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are Republicans to take over the Senate in 2014?

REPUBLICANS (96 VOTES)

February 2014: Average 6.4, 4% (slight), 44% (moderate), 52% (strong)
August 2013: Average 5.3, 16% (slight), 63% (moderate), 21% (strong)
February 2013: Average 4.8, 24% (slight), 62% (moderate), 14% (strong)

Key: slight (0-3); moderate (4-6); strong (7-10)

0-3

"We will lose two of our own, some way, some how. That will be the difference."

4-6

"Obama could probably save Landrieu, Begich, and the Senate with a Keystone approval, but how much inner Frank Underwood does he have in him?"

"No one seems to be pulling ahead. And the strategies of each individual candidate are from the same ole playbook."

"Republicans clearly have the wind at their backs, but that notwithstanding they still have to virtually run the table in order to capture control. I do believe that a net gain of four seats is a virtual certainty."

"Still a Democratic edge, but waning a bit."

"Uphill but doable. Obama-fatigue is setting in throughout the country and in the Senate."

7-10

"They started with cruel math, now the president and his signature legislation are a millstone."

"More likely than the Caps winning the cup in 2015, but less likely than the Nats winning the World Series."

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.