The finance industry is reportedly worried about 2016. With more than 1,000 days until that election, it's safe to say that the presidential race's landscape might change, but we feel safe in calling one winner: Wall Street. Big business shouldn't be worried about progressives like Sen. Elizabeth Warren triumphing in 2016. It should be worried about who controls the House after 2014.
Spotted on morning commute: Maryland license plate HLLRY16— David A. Graham (@GrahamDavidA) November 12, 2013
An NBC poll out on Tuesday outlines the if-it-were-today make-up of each party's 2016 field. (Bookmark this: the odds are good that this will be useful in 2017 as a reminder that early polls are useless.) On the Democratic side, the story is all Hillary; she gets two-thirds of support from those who've made up their minds — four times what every other candidate gets, combined. On the Republican side, the story of the moment is Chris Christie: he picks up almost one-third of the party's support. There's more volatility among Republicans than Democrats, given the larger field and given the fluctuations in the 2012. (Reminder: watch the second-by-second changes in the Republican contest!) But if it were held today: Christie versus Clinton — and Clinton wins by 10 points.
What Clinton's doing now is what she tried to do in the run-up to 2008: project inevitability. But this time, she seems actually to be inevitable, barring some massive change.
A story at Politico on Monday suggests that Wall Street, for one, isn't convinced, and that big business worries about the newly-trendy speculation surrounding Warren. The article outlines the reasons why Wall Street wouldn't be happy with a Warren candidacy, the most obvious being she was elected in a heavily Democratic state based on a record of challenging the omnipotence of the financial world. And it articulates why Wall Street likes Clinton, as represented by the quote at left and as manifested in large speakers' fees from Goldman Sachs to the likely candidate.