Politics

Poll: Does Your Party Benefit or Suffer if Congress Abandons Immigration Reform?

By Michael Catalini, Alex Roarty, Peter Bell, and National Journal
Saved Stories

What will be the political impact on your party in the 2014 elections if Congress fails to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill that includes a path to citizenship?

DEMOCRATS (88 VOTES)

Help: 57%
Hurt: 9%
No impact: 34%

Help

"Congressional Republicans continue to do everything they can to risk their lock on control of the House. If they block immigration reform, Latino turnout will go through the roof in 2014 and cost the GOP its majority in the House and its opportunity to win the Senate. GOP is bent on self-destruction; God bless their pointy little heads."

"Not to be cynical, but subtly pointing out the inherent racism of the GOP simultaneously blocking immigration reform for Hispanics while trying to take health care away from African-Americans will be devastating."

"The Republican Congress is going out of its way to show the Latino and Asian communities that they are not their friends."

"Anything and everything that helps generate turnout is positive."

"The Republicans will have a lot of explaining to do to a growing group of voters who don't trust them anyway."

"Should be a good base-mobilization issue for Democrat where a strong Latino vote could swing some key Senate and gubernatorial races."

Hurt

"It will dampen but not destroy Latino ardor."

"I think it will hurt both parties. Republicans will pay with Hispanic opposition. Democrats will pay with low Hispanic turnout."

No impact

"This issue will come back to haunt Republicans, but not until 2016."

"The bar is so low for Congress right now that the expectation is 'Fail to pass.' It won't matter."

"Those who have an opinion on reform are firmly in one court or another."

What will be the political impact on your party in the 2014 elections if Congress fails to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill that includes a path to citizenship?

REPUBLICANS (92 VOTES)

Help: 10%
Hurt: 39%
No impact: 51%

Help

"GOP will pick up seats in 2014 no matter what. Six-year itch and exhaustion of Obama ensure a good midterm election."

"For every Latino voter switching to a Republican for supporting amnesty, there will be four Republicans who stay home."

Hurt

"It just continues to dig the hole deeper with Hispanics, and postpones resurrection of the Republican Party nationally."

"Maybe not on many specific races, but the president will demagogue us to death on our party image."

"At the end of the day, unless and until Republicans are able to garner a reasonable amount of support from the fastest-growing segment of the population, we are cutting our own throats."

"We're getting killed every day on Spanish-language media, and our guys don't even know it."

No impact

"The House needs to pass something, but reconciling with the Senate could do more harm than good for a midterm where motivating the base is critical."

"This is a 2016 issue."

"Bad economy, effect on Obamacare will keep voters distracted from immigration."

"Each party gets it as an issue, but as long as the economy stinks, it doesn't hold much sway."

"Probably a wash in 2014, which will mask terrible impacts in 2016 and beyond."

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

What will be the political impact on your party in the 2014 elections if Congress fails to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill that includes a path to citizenship?

DEMOCRATS (88 VOTES)

Help: 57%
Hurt: 9%
No impact: 34%

Help

"Congressional Republicans continue to do everything they can to risk their lock on control of the House. If they block immigration reform, Latino turnout will go through the roof in 2014 and cost the GOP its majority in the House and its opportunity to win the Senate. GOP is bent on self-destruction; God bless their pointy little heads."

"Not to be cynical, but subtly pointing out the inherent racism of the GOP simultaneously blocking immigration reform for Hispanics while trying to take health care away from African-Americans will be devastating."

"The Republican Congress is going out of its way to show the Latino and Asian communities that they are not their friends."

"Anything and everything that helps generate turnout is positive."

"The Republicans will have a lot of explaining to do to a growing group of voters who don't trust them anyway."

"Should be a good base-mobilization issue for Democrat where a strong Latino vote could swing some key Senate and gubernatorial races."

Hurt

"It will dampen but not destroy Latino ardor."

"I think it will hurt both parties. Republicans will pay with Hispanic opposition. Democrats will pay with low Hispanic turnout."

No impact

"This issue will come back to haunt Republicans, but not until 2016."

"The bar is so low for Congress right now that the expectation is 'Fail to pass.' It won't matter."

"Those who have an opinion on reform are firmly in one court or another."

What will be the political impact on your party in the 2014 elections if Congress fails to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill that includes a path to citizenship?

REPUBLICANS (92 VOTES)

Help: 10%
Hurt: 39%
No impact: 51%

Help

"GOP will pick up seats in 2014 no matter what. Six-year itch and exhaustion of Obama ensure a good midterm election."

"For every Latino voter switching to a Republican for supporting amnesty, there will be four Republicans who stay home."

Hurt

"It just continues to dig the hole deeper with Hispanics, and postpones resurrection of the Republican Party nationally."

"Maybe not on many specific races, but the president will demagogue us to death on our party image."

"At the end of the day, unless and until Republicans are able to garner a reasonable amount of support from the fastest-growing segment of the population, we are cutting our own throats."

"We're getting killed every day on Spanish-language media, and our guys don't even know it."

No impact

"The House needs to pass something, but reconciling with the Senate could do more harm than good for a midterm where motivating the base is critical."

"This is a 2016 issue."

"Bad economy, effect on Obamacare will keep voters distracted from immigration."

"Each party gets it as an issue, but as long as the economy stinks, it doesn't hold much sway."

"Probably a wash in 2014, which will mask terrible impacts in 2016 and beyond."

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.