Politics

Poll: How Likely Are Democrats to Take Over the House?

By Michael Catalini, Alex Roarty, Peter Bell, and National Journal
Saved Stories

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are Democrats to take over the House in 2014?

DEMOCRATS (83 VOTES)

Average: 2.7

Slight chance (0-3): 70%}
Moderate chance (4-6): 28%
Strong chance (7-10): 2%

Slight chance

"It would require a wave on top of a tsunami."

"Even in a Democratic wave election, the lack of competitive districts would make it difficult for Democrats to win the House."

"That Hill is too steep. Thanks, redistricting!"

"There simply aren't enough competitive seats to make the difference in this midterm."

"Entrenched, unaccountable incumbents make any significant shift nearly impossible."

"That's shooting too high. It will take more than one election cycle."

"House Republicans are most unpopular, but they have a redistricting lock in most states."

"Only about nine seats truly in play. Sad!"

"An off year, Obama's numbers are down, GOP super PACs are unabated — it all spells bad things for the Democrats even though they continue to contend they can win it."

"The shape of the House districts makes it virtually impossible. In fact, I don't really see a lot of districts flipping in either direction in 2014."

"The gerrymandering fix is in for the Republicans."

"The Dems will probably get more total votes again, but the R's have effectively packed the Dems' districts, so it won't be enough."

Moderate chance

"Tough slog, but the Republican caucus seems to help even the score more and more as time passes by."

"If the R's shut down the government, maybe."

"Even though the math works against Democrats, the House Republicans are alienating everyone in the middle, giving Democrats a chance."

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are Democrats to take over the House in 2014?

REPUBLICANS (94 VOTES)

Average: 1.9

Slight chance (0-3): 94%
Moderate chance (4-6): 5%
Strong chance (7-10): 1%

Slight chance

"The Dems will lose seats in the House."

"Chances the Democrats take the House are slim at the moment, but the probability goes to 7 if Republicans shut down the government."

"Even if the Wicked Witch of the West bestowed all of her powers on former Speaker [Nancy] Pelosi, it still wouldn't be enough for her to become the great and powerful Oz."

"Dems and Obama are currently playing defense; a GOP catastrophe would be required for even a small chance."

"The Nationals are mathematically alive to win the World Series this year, too."

"Bad math, fractured agenda, not within their control."

"Not a chance."

"Voters won't trust Democrats with total control."

"Anything can happen in politics, but peace in the Middle East is more likely than Democrats taking over the House."

"The only event that could hand Nancy Pelosi the gavel is if House Republicans adopt the Heritage Action plan to shut down the government over Obamacare. Boehner's not going to let that happen."

"There just aren't enough seats in play."

"A real government shutdown could move it from a 2 to a 5."

"Americans like a check on the president."

"It would take a mighty big wave to get them to a majority."

"Only if the GOP wackos screw up the debt ceiling."

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are Democrats to take over the House in 2014?

DEMOCRATS (83 VOTES)

Average: 2.7

Slight chance (0-3): 70%}
Moderate chance (4-6): 28%
Strong chance (7-10): 2%

Slight chance

"It would require a wave on top of a tsunami."

"Even in a Democratic wave election, the lack of competitive districts would make it difficult for Democrats to win the House."

"That Hill is too steep. Thanks, redistricting!"

"There simply aren't enough competitive seats to make the difference in this midterm."

"Entrenched, unaccountable incumbents make any significant shift nearly impossible."

"That's shooting too high. It will take more than one election cycle."

"House Republicans are most unpopular, but they have a redistricting lock in most states."

"Only about nine seats truly in play. Sad!"

"An off year, Obama's numbers are down, GOP super PACs are unabated — it all spells bad things for the Democrats even though they continue to contend they can win it."

"The shape of the House districts makes it virtually impossible. In fact, I don't really see a lot of districts flipping in either direction in 2014."

"The gerrymandering fix is in for the Republicans."

"The Dems will probably get more total votes again, but the R's have effectively packed the Dems' districts, so it won't be enough."

Moderate chance

"Tough slog, but the Republican caucus seems to help even the score more and more as time passes by."

"If the R's shut down the government, maybe."

"Even though the math works against Democrats, the House Republicans are alienating everyone in the middle, giving Democrats a chance."

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are Democrats to take over the House in 2014?

REPUBLICANS (94 VOTES)

Average: 1.9

Slight chance (0-3): 94%
Moderate chance (4-6): 5%
Strong chance (7-10): 1%

Slight chance

"The Dems will lose seats in the House."

"Chances the Democrats take the House are slim at the moment, but the probability goes to 7 if Republicans shut down the government."

"Even if the Wicked Witch of the West bestowed all of her powers on former Speaker [Nancy] Pelosi, it still wouldn't be enough for her to become the great and powerful Oz."

"Dems and Obama are currently playing defense; a GOP catastrophe would be required for even a small chance."

"The Nationals are mathematically alive to win the World Series this year, too."

"Bad math, fractured agenda, not within their control."

"Not a chance."

"Voters won't trust Democrats with total control."

"Anything can happen in politics, but peace in the Middle East is more likely than Democrats taking over the House."

"The only event that could hand Nancy Pelosi the gavel is if House Republicans adopt the Heritage Action plan to shut down the government over Obamacare. Boehner's not going to let that happen."

"There just aren't enough seats in play."

"A real government shutdown could move it from a 2 to a 5."

"Americans like a check on the president."

"It would take a mighty big wave to get them to a majority."

"Only if the GOP wackos screw up the debt ceiling."

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.