As is tradition before election day, our nation's wise pundits have made their predictions for who will win today, how and by what margin, theoretically giving us an idea of the most likely outcome for president of the United States. Each year, they do this guessing based on polls, "vibrations," and history. We trust these people's ideas for various reasons. But, really, none of them know anything for sure—after reading about 10 of these one gets the impression that these predictions are totally made up. Normally, they do this number guessing without repercussions. Today, we would like to add some accountability to that game.
Below we've compiled a chart of all the political talking heads we could find who gave their take on this election, charting who they are, who they think will win, which swing states they claim their winner will nab, and—if they said—their popular vote breakdown. Given the widely accepted swing states—Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida—there are 512 possible outcomes to this election, as The Atlantic Wire's Gabriel Snyder explained. However, not all of our pundits agree on those states alone. Some of them (like Slate's Dave Weigel) give Maine to Romney, and others say Pennsylvania and Minnesota (because of the same sex marriage amendment on the ballot) will go to him, too. Once you add the popular vote percentages, there are many ways this could go. Meaning there are also a lot of ways our pundits can get it wrong.
Update 3:00 p.m.: Per a request from a commenter, we've added political ideology to the chart. For the people who are officially neutral reporters or don't do politics talking for a living, we left the column blank.
Following the election, once we see how the people voted, we will update the chart with the actual outcome, crowning a pundit winner who most accurately guessed the electoral and popular vote breakdown. Until then, feel free to place your bets, people.
This article is from the archive of our partner The Wire.