How Badly Does Obama Need the Minority Vote?

Alabama
Obama (39%); McCain (60%)
(9 electoral votes) Alaska
Obama (38%); McCain (60%)
(3 electoral votes) Arizona
Obama (45%); McCain (54%)
(10 electoral votes) Arkansas
Obama (39%); McCain (59%)
(6 electoral votes) California
Obama (61%); McCain (37%)
(55 electoral votes) California
Obama (61%); McCain (37%)
(55 electoral votes) Colorado
Obama (54%); McCain (45%)
(9 electoral votes) Connecticut
Obama (61%); McCain (38%)
(7 electoral votes) Delaware
Obama (62%); McCain (37%)
(3 electoral votes) District of Columbia
Obama (93%); McCain (7%)
(3 electoral votes) Florida
Obama (51%); McCain (48%)
(27 electoral votes) Georgia
Obama (47%); McCain (52%)
(15 electoral votes) Hawaii
Obama (72%); McCain (27%)
(4 electoral votes) Idaho
Obama (36%); McCain (62%)
(4 electoral votes) Idaho
Obama (36%); McCain (62%)
(4 electoral votes) Illinois
Obama (36%); McCain (62%)
(21 electoral votes) Indiana
Obama (50%); McCain (49%)
(11 electoral votes) Iowa
Obama (54%); McCain (45%)
(7 electoral votes) Kansas
Obama (41%); McCain (57%)
(6 electoral votes) Kentucky
Obama (41%); McCain (57%)
(8 electoral votes) Louisiana
Obama (40%); McCain (59%)
(9 electoral votes) Maine
Obama (58%); McCain (41%)
(4 electoral votes) Maryland
Obama (62%); McCain (37%)
(10 electoral votes) Massachusetts
Obama (62%); McCain (36%)
(12 electoral votes) Michigan
Obama (57%); McCain (41%)
(17 electoral votes) Michigan
Obama (57%); McCain (41%)
(17 electoral votes) Minnesota
Obama (54%); McCain (44%)
(10 electoral votes) Mississippi
Obama (43%); McCain (56%)
(6 electoral votes) Missouri
Obama (49%); McCain (49%)
(11 electoral votes) Montana
Obama (47%); McCain (50%)
(3 electoral votes) Nebraska
Obama (42%); McCain (57%)
(5 electoral votes) Nevada
Obama (55%); McCain (43%)
(5 electoral votes) New Hampshire
Obama (54%); McCain (45%)
(4 electoral votes) New Jersey
Obama (57%); McCain (42%)
(15 electoral votes) New Mexico
Obama (57%); McCain (42%)
(5 electoral votes) New York
Obama (62%); McCain (37%)
(31 electoral votes) North Carolina
Obama (50%); McCain (50%)
(15 electoral votes) North Dakota
Obama (45%); McCain (53%)
(3 electoral votes) Ohio
Obama (51%); McCain (47%)
(20 electoral votes) Oklahoma
Obama (34%); McCain (66%)
(7 electoral votes) Oregon
Obama (57%); McCain (41%)
(7 electoral votes) Pennsylvania
Obama (55%); McCain (44%)
(21 electoral votes) Rhode Island
Obama (63%); McCain (35%)
(4 electoral votes) South Carolina
Obama (45%); McCain (54%)
(8 electoral votes) South Dakota
Obama (45%); McCain (53%)
(3 electoral votes) Tennessee
Obama (42%); McCain (57%)
(11 electoral votes) Texas
Obama (44%); McCain (56%)
(34 electoral votes) Texas
Obama (44%); McCain (56%)
(34 electoral votes) Utah
Obama (34%); McCain (63%)
(5 electoral votes) Vermont
Obama (68%); McCain (31%)
(3 electoral votes) Virginia
Obama (53%); McCain (46%)
(13 electoral votes) Washington
Obama (57%); McCain (41%)
(11 electoral votes) West Virginia
Obama (43%); McCain (56%)
(5 electoral votes) Wisconsin
Obama (56%); McCain (42%)
(10 electoral votes) Wyoming
Obama (33%); McCain (65%)
(3 electoral votes) Alabama
Obama (10%); McCain (55%)
(McCain keeps) Alaska
Obama (33%); McCain (65%)
(McCain keeps) Arizona
Obama (40%); McCain (59%)
(McCain keeps) Arkansas
Obama (30%); McCain (68%)
(McCain keeps) California
Obama (52%); McCain (46%)
(Obama keeps) California
Obama (52%); McCain (46%)
(Obama keeps) Colorado
Obama (50%); McCain (48%)
(Tossup state--Obama likely) Connecticut
Obama (51%); McCain (46%)
(Obama keeps) Delaware
Obama (51%); McCain (46%)
(Obama keeps) District of Columbia
Obama (86%); McCain (12%)
(Obama keeps) Florida
Obama (42%); McCain (56%)
(Obama loses) Georgia
Obama (23%); McCain (76%)
(McCain keeps) Hawaii
Obama (70%); McCain (27%)
(Obama keeps) Idaho
Obama (33%); McCain (65%)
(McCain keeps) Idaho
Obama (33%); McCain (65%)
(McCain keeps) Illinois
Obama (51%); McCain (48%)
(Obama keeps) Indiana
Obama (45%); McCain (54%)
(Obama loses) Iowa
Obama (51%); McCain (48%)
(Obama keeps) Kansas
Obama (40%); McCain (59%)
(McCain keeps) Kentucky
Obama (36%); McCain (63%)
(McCain keeps) Louisiana
Obama (14%); McCain (84%)
(McCain keeps) Maine
Obama (58%); McCain (40%)
(Obama keeps) Maryland
Obama (47%); McCain (49%)
(Tossup state) Massachusetts
Obama (59%); McCain (39%)
(Obama keeps) Michigan
Obama (51%); McCain (47%)
(Obama keeps) Michigan
Obama (51%); McCain (47%)
(Obama keeps) Minnesota
Obama (53%); McCain (46%)
(Obama keeps) Mississippi
Obama (11%); McCain (88%)
(McCain keeps) Missouri
Obama (42%); McCain (57%)
(McCain keeps) Montana
Obama (45%); McCain (52%)
(McCain keeps) Nebraska
Obama (39%); McCain (59%)
(McCain keeps) Nevada
Obama (45%); McCain (53%)
(Obama loses) New Hampshire
Obama (54%); McCain (44%)
(Obama keeps) New Jersey
Obama (49%); McCain (50%)
(Tossup state--McCain likely) New Mexico
Obama (42%); McCain (56%)
(Obama loses) New York
Obama (52%); McCain (46%)
(Obama keeps) North Carolina
Obama (35%); McCain (64%)
(Obama loses) North Dakota
Obama (42%); McCain (55%)
(McCain keeps) Ohio
Obama (46%); McCain (52%)
(Obama loses) Oklahoma
Obama (29%); McCain (71%)
(McCain keeps) Oregon
Obama (57%); McCain (40%)
(Obama keeps) Pennsylvania
Obama (48%); McCain (51%)
(Obama loses) Rhode Island
Obama (58%); McCain (39%)
(Obama keeps) South Carolina
Obama (26%); McCain (73%)
(McCain keeps) South Dakota
Obama (41%); McCain (56%)
(McCain keeps) Tennessee
Obama (34%); McCain (63%)
(McCain keeps) Texas
Obama (26%); McCain (73%)
(McCain keeps) Texas
Obama (26%); McCain (73%)
(McCain keeps) Utah
Obama (31%); McCain (66%)
(McCain keeps) Vermont
Obama (68%); McCain (31%)
(Obama keeps) Virginia
Obama (38%); McCain (60%)
(Obama loses) Washington
Obama (55%); McCain (42%)
(Obama keeps) West Virginia
Obama (41%); McCain (57%)
(McCain keeps) Wisconsin
Obama (54%); McCain (45%)
(Obama keeps) Wyoming
Obama (32%); McCain (66%)
(Obama keeps)

View final 2008 electoral map | View map of 2008 results showing only white-voter preferences

Four years ago, African-Americans, Hispanics, and young voters came to the polls in droves, helping then-Sen. Barack Obama reach the White House and effectively defining one of the most racially divided electoral maps in history.

Obama managed to win the presidency with just 43 percent of white voters, while soundly winning over the nonwhite vote: 95 percent among African-Americans and 67 percent among Latinos. These numbers become more impressive considering that nonwhites made up just over a quarter of the vote. White voters cast 74 percent of the votes in 2008.

Obama's victory, then, was largely created by historically high turnout among voters of color and youth, even though these groups were the clear minority at the polls. While the message in 2012 has been dominated by the stagnant economy, it's also been an election colored by race and questions about whether the president has performed well enough to keep his minority base, while inspiring them to turn out Tuesday at the polls.

What's clear is this: Without the minority vote in 2008, Obama would not have won. Considering his performance among only white voters four years ago, Obama would have won just 213 electoral votes--not even close to the 270 needed to clinch victory and far short of the 365 that he actually secured.

In fact, minority voters represented the tipping point in eight states, while presenting a considerable force in three others. That's up to 11 states that Obama would not have won, and 152 electoral votes shy of the presidency.

In last week's National Journal cover story, Ronald Brownstein discusses the importance of the minority and youth vote, as well as the vote among college-educated white voters, for the Democratic party. He also explores the unsustainable divides that have defined the political parties as of late. 

Obama's hope for reelection lies on the coalition that has since been defined by the voters who powered his historic victory four years ago. Revisiting the numbers from 2008 reiterates this point and sets the stage again for the importance of the minority vote in Tuesday's election.