The Election Isn't Over for Romney After All
Today in Poll Watch: Hey, it looks like this race might be tight again -- Romney's lead is growing among independents, and Elizabeth Warren's ahead in Massachusetts.
.Hey, it looks like this race might be tight again -- Mitt Romney's lead is growing among independents, and Elizabeth Warren's up in Massachusetts. Here's our guide to today's polls and why they matter.
Findings: This race tightening! Obama leads 50 percent to Romney's 47 percent among likely voters in a new CNN/ ORC International Poll, and 49 percent to 47 percent in a new ABC News/ Washington Post poll.
Pollster: CNN/ ORC International, Langer Research Associates for ABC News/ Washington Post
Methodology: For CNN: Telephone interviews of 783 likely voters September 28 through 30 with a margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points. For ABC: Landline and cell phone poll of 813 likely voters September 26 through 29 with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points for likely voters.
Why it matters: Obama opened up a wider lead in the weeks following the convention, but that lead is now shrinking again. As BuzzFeed's Andrew Kaczynski quipped on Twitter: "W/the new CNN poll showing the race tightening this sets the stage for the Romney comeback narrative we all agreed to at the media meeting." The results match up with a Politico poll also out today, and show that this race might still be exciting.
Caveat: Obama is up by a far larger margin in swing states -- 52 percent to 41 percent, according to the ABC poll -- and more voters expect Obama to win the debates. That could mean if Obama wins the debates, it won't make much of a difference, but if Romney wins, it could turn the tide.
Findings: More signs of hope for Romney: he leads by 4 points among independents in a survey that finds Obama leading by 2 points among likely voters.
Pollster: Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners for Politico/GWU
Methodology: Survey of 1,000 registered likely voters September 24 through 27 with a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.
Why it matters: Independents are the voters Romney needs. Politico's James Hohmann remarks that Romney's numbers among independents are "up slightly from a week ago," which is good news for Romney who "must overperform with that group to make up for the near monolithic support of African-Americans for Obama, as well as the huge Democratic advantage among Latinos and women."
Caveat: The debates are a good chance to change things around or totally blow it.
Findings: Two new polls put Elizabeth Warren back up ahead of Sen. Scott Brown in Massachusetts.
Pollster: UNH Survey Center for Boston Globe, MassINC Polling Group for WBUR Massachusetts
Methodology: For Boston Globe: Telephone interviews with 502 likely Massachusetts voters September 21 through 27 with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percent. For WBUR: Telephone interviews with 504 likely Massachusetts voters September 24 through 28 with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percent.
Why it matters: This race has been bouncing around, and now Warren appears to be in the lead again. Brown's been digging his heels in on the issue of Warren's status as a Native American, but his campaign has not been on their best, most racially sensitive behavior.
Caveat: But there's another debate tonight!