As we get closer to November 6 and polls start to look more and more like predictions, new numbers from the ongoing Senate races show the Democrats clinging to their slim majority this fall. Nate Silver and FiveThrityEight have Democrats coming up with 51.2 seats, enough to hold on to their majority* by the slimmest of margins. Electoral-Vote.com's map also has the same one-seat edge, based on their gathering of swing state polls.
Republicans had hoped to take control of both houses of Congress this year, but a closer breakdown of individual races reveals a few surprises. In one of the most closely watched and hardest fought races, Democrat Elizabeth Warren has opened up a lead on Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts. FiveThirtyEight gives her a 64 percent chance of winning at the moment. A Michigan Senate race that was thought to be competitive earlier this year is now looking like a blowout for Democrat Debbie Stabenow, and Missouri's Claire McCaskill is pulling away from everyone's favorite rape pregnancy expert Todd Akin.
One big tossup remains in Nevada, where Republicans Republican Dean Heller is projected to beat Shelley Berkley, but polling remains divided. Wisconsin and Virginia are also still close fights.