Gallup and Reuters/Ipsos are showing that Obama got a convention bump in both the presidential race and his job approval. Here's our guide to today's polls and why they matter.
Findings: Gallup's polls indicate that Obama received a convention bounce both in his approval rating and in his standing in the race against Romney. He now leads Romney 48 percent to 45 percent — previously it had been by just one point — in their daily tracking poll, and in their three-day rolling average job approval poll, with 52 percent of people approving of him and 43 percent disapproving.
Methodology: For presidential: Telephone interviews with 3,050 registered voters, with a margin of error +/-2 percentage points as part of a seven-day-rolling average. For approval: Telephone interviews with 1,500 national adults September 4 through 6, with a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points.
Why it matters: The approval rating, according to Gallup's editor-in-chief Frank Newport, is the "highest it has been since May 2011, after the killing of Osama bin Laden." Meanwhile, when it comes to the presidential contest, Newport wrote, via Talking Points Memo, "This uptick in these two indicators stands in contrast to tracking during the Republican Convention, during which there was no discernible bounce on the ballot tracking."
Caveat: Newport also points out that "the current data are quite preliminary and for the most part don't reflect the influence of Obama's late Thursday night speech, if any." Additionally, as The Hill notes, last week a Reuters/Ipsos poll gave Romney a post-convention bump. Mark Blumenthal at the Huffington Post points out that Rasmussen's daily tracking has "not yet picked up a pro-Obama bounce."
Findings: In a Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll Obama moved ahead of Romney 46 percent to 44 percent among likely voters.
Methodology: Four-day rolling online poll of 1,434 likely voters September 4 through 7 with a "credibility interval" of +/-2.7 percentage points.
Why it matters: After Reuters/Ipsos's tracking yesterday indicated that Obama hadn't yet seen a bounce from the convention, here's his bounce. Julia Clark of Ipsos told Reuters: "The numbers only moved a little bit but they moved in the direction that suggests that we may be seeing the first inkling of a post-convention bump."
Caveat: Clark told us that she wouldn't consider this poll a "referendum" on Obama's speech.
This article is from the archive of our partner The Wire.
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