Freshman Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle, R-N.Y., and the man she defeated in 2010, former Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei, are locked in a tied race in New York's 24th District, with Buerkle's support at a vulnerable level for an incumbent, according to a new poll.

Buerkle and Maffei each draw 43 percent in a new Siena College poll released on Thursday morning. Green Party candidate Ursula Rozum won 7 percent, while another 7 percent of respondents said they're undecided.

Poll results registering under 45 percent are dangerous for incumbents, and there is little else in the Siena survey to comfort Buerkle as she fights for a second term. As many voters — 44 percent — view her unfavorably as favorably. Repeat candidates like Maffei, who is now running for the fourth time, often suffer from high negatives, but voters view him positively overall, with 49 percent saying they have a favorable opinion of him and 37 percent saying they have an unfavorable opinion.

President Obama holds a large lead in the district, beating Mitt Romney 55 percent to 36 percent. Buerkle will need crossover voters to win reelection, but after compiling one of the most conservative voting records in the House in her freshman year, she has offered Obama supporters little reason to split their tickets beyond a desire for divided government.

The survey, conducted Sept. 5-10, polled 625 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

We want to hear what you think about this article. Submit a letter to the editor or write to letters@theatlantic.com.