This, according to one simple application that anyone with an Internet connection can access.
One way to help simplify life is to find a single source of information that summarizes a flood of others. For products I visit consumersearch.com; a New York Times article recently recommended thewirecutter.com. Fortunately, there's also a site that aggregates political information in the form of a market in which anybody can bet limited amounts of real money on outcomes. James Surowiecki summarized the theory here.
So when Paul Ryan was announced on Saturday as Mitt Romney's vice-presidential choice, I didn't try to follow the arguments of political mavens on the impact of the selection. I turned to the Iowa Electronic Markets, which had seen me through the 2008 primaries and general election. And the results were surprising:
After all the polemics on both sides, the general election futures contract prices have remained stuck at about 60-40 in Barack Obama's favor. Looking at the price history, the Ryan nomination barely registered on the IEM seismograph.
Romney supporters may claim there is some hidden bias against their candidate, but it wasn't apparent in the Republican primaries, in which their candidate took an early lead in the IEM.