One poll shows a convention "bounce" for Romney, while Michigan is close, or not really. Here's our guide to today's polls and why they matter.
Findings: In a national rolling poll Romney now leads Obama 44 to 42 percent.
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,481 registered voters in a four-day rolling poll taken August 26 through 30 with a "credibility interval" of +/-2.9 percentage points.
Why it matters: According to Reuters' Steve Holland, the numbers out today suggest that Romney got a "small bounce" from the convention. At the beginning of the week, in the first installment of the rolling poll, Obama led 46 to 42 percent.
Caveat: Obama might get a "bounce" next week from his convention. Also, these numbers were released before Romney's speech last night.
Findings: Obama leads 49 percent to 46 percent in Michigan.
Methodology: Automated poll of 1,200 likely voters August 28 with a margin of error of +/-2.6 percentage points.
Why it matters: Recent polls out of Michigan have indicated that the state might have a tight race on its hands. In a July EPIC-MRA poll Obama led by a comfier six points, according to the Detroit Free Press' Todd Spangler. The Mitchell poll has also indicated a similar shift: Obama's lead dropped to a tie from a five-point lead.
Caveat: All that said, Five Thirty Eight's Nate Silver cautioned earlier this week that Michigan isn't a "tossup." Silver points out that national polls working in the state show Obama with a bigger lead while in-state polls, such as this one, make the race seem much closer. Also, as Spangler notes, the poll was taken before some key speeches at the convention occurred.
This article is from the archive of our partner The Wire.
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