Some poll findings Obama won't be too happy with: Young people don't want to vote as much as they used to and Floridians aren't too fond of health care. Here's our guide to today's polls and why they matter.
Findings: Young people are losing interest in voting. Just 58 percent of voters 18 to 29 years old said they are "definitely likely to vote" this November, down from 78 percent in a poll taken in October ahead of the 2008 election, and 81 percent in 2004.
Methodology: 2,803 registered voters in the 18-to-29 age group were called by phone between May 1 through July 10 as part of Gallup's larger national poll. The margin of error for the subgroup is +/-2 percentage points.
Why it matters: Young people were all about Obama in 2008 and he needs them again now, but the lower enthusiasm for his giving him a second term could cost him votes for his re-election.
Caveat: Young people don't really get excited about elections until the fall. In the last two election cycles the amount of people in the youngest demographic who said they would vote went up between June and and October — in 2004 it jumped 20 percentage points and in 2008 it jumped 9. Even so, young people don't trust young people when they say they'll "absolutely" vote. Of those 78 percent who said they were definitely voting, many didn't. The turnout rate for 18-to-24 year olds in in 2008 was 49 percent, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Findings: Floridians do not like Obamacare. Voters in the state oppose the Affordable Care Act by 52 percent to 43 percent, with only 5 percent undecided.
Pollster: Mason-Dixon for Tampa Bay Times and partners.
Methodology: 800 registered voters were surveyed via telephone between July 9 and 11. The margin of error is +/-3.5 percentage points.
Why it matters: Bad news for Obama whose key piece of legislation is not going over well in this key swing state. Good news for Gov. Rick Scott who has said he will opt out of the ACA's Medicaid expansion.
Caveat: Not so much a caveat as an additional piece of information. Obama might not want to hear: the percentage amount of support among voters 65 or older is even lower that the statewide percentage at 39 percent. According to the Tampa Bay Times, Florida's electorate is 30 percent senior.
Findings: Romney and Obama are tied 46-46.
Methodology: This is Gallup's tracking poll and is a seven-day rolling average. Telephone interviews with about 3,050 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-2 percentage points.
Why it matters: Never forget: this race is tight.
Findings: Gallup has 48 percent disapproving and 45 percent approving of Obama's job performance.
Methodology: 1,500 national adults were interviewed via telephone. The margin of error is +/-3 percentage points.
Why it matters: Though Obama might lead or tie when pitched against Romney, his approval rating is in the negative. In Real Clear Politic's average 47.3 percent approve and 48.8 disapprove. Today's Rasmussen saw the same spread only with 48 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving.
Caveat: Nate Silver took on the topic of Obama's approval ratings yesterday. He noted that we shouldn't forget Obama's favorability ratings, which show good news for Obama on average according to RCP. Silver writes: "it seems as though the small set of voters who take a favorable view of Mr. Obama but do not approve of his job performance are very much worth fighting over for the campaigns."
This article is from the archive of our partner The Wire.
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