Political Insiders Poll

By Alex Roarty, Naureen Khan, Peter Bell, and National Journal

June 28, 2012

Will the recent developments involving immigration prompt higher Latino turnout in 2012 than in 2008?

DEMOCRATS (100 Votes)

Yes: 85%
No: 15%

Yes

"The president's decision on immigration, and Romney's refusal to embrace it, puts in stark relief the difference between the two parties. Hispanics get it."

"What have the Republicans done from a legislative standpoint to help immigrants? That is all you really need to know."

"While much of the increase will be due to demographics (increasing citizen population), the focus on immigration issues will provide some additional turnout over the level seen in 2008."

"If history in California is any indication, going back at least as far as 1994, the immigration debate dramatically increases Latino participation in the political process."

"Latinos are energized. The choice between "˜self-deporting' versus "˜dreaming' could not be more stark."

"The numbers don't lie. The Latino population will be a force like never before. The fact that little-known and untested Sen. Rubio remains as a possible Romney choice tells you all you need to know."

"The door is open: The question is whether progressive Hispanic organizations will have the resources on a parallel track to the Obama campaign to run the programs necessary to drive increased registration and turnout."

"It will be close to 2008 levels, and that's good enough for Obama to win Colorado, Nevada, and very possibly Florida."

"I think the Latino vote is pretty locked in for 2012, both in terms of turnout (not as strong as Obama would like) and result (more lopsided than Romney would like)."

"This may not change turnout, but it will solidify a big margin for Obama."

"Why do we keep thinking Latinos care more about immigration than they do about jobs? They don't."

Will the recent developments involving immigration prompt higher Latino turnout in 2012 than in 2008?

REPUBLICANS (103 Votes)

Yes: 32%
No: 68%

Yes

"This is the best thing to happen to the Obama administration since killing bin Laden."

"Probably about the same turnout, but that's no solace for Republicans. Romney's primary strategy on immigration traded short-term gain for long-term pain."

"Fear is one of the great motivators of politics, and it won't take much to convince Latinos that their status in the U.S. is on the line in this election."

"A major voting bloc that George W. Bush tried to bring into the GOP but which the extremists have callously turned away — for generations."

"Not appreciably. They aren't one-issue voters, and they are also feeling the negative effects of the Obama economy."

"Latinos are disenchanted more so than in 2008; that usually leads to lower turnouts, especially among youths."

"Latinos are smarter than that. After bragging about extraditing more Latinos than George W. Bush, arguing that Latinos should now turn out for him is too much of a U-turn."

"I don't see that level of enthusiasm. And record deportations by this administration make Obama's fearmongering ring hollow."

"Just maintaining 2008 enthusiasm would be huge for Obama."

"Latino turnout was very high in 2008, and immigration reform was a big issue in the summer of 2008. The Supreme Court decision may lessen the intensity."

"Neither side has made a credible or emotional appeal to Latinos that would produce added interest."

"It's hard for it to go much higher than 2008, but nevertheless, this issue is becoming a bigger loser for Republicans."

How damaging are the "Fast and Furious" proceedings to President Obama?

DEMOCRATS (99 VOTES)

Very damaging: 2%
Somewhat damaging: 23%
Not damaging: 75%

Somewhat damaging

"One of the Obama administration's greatest strengths, thus far, has been its relative lack of scandal or misconduct. If this issue gets traction in everyday America (which I'm not sure it will), it would diminish an Obama strength."

"They are damaging in that they suggest Obama is not on top of agencies within his own government. It is a joke, of course — no president is on top of all agencies within his own government. But the public doesn't seem to know that, so it hurts Obama."

"The best part of this horrible story from the Dems' and president's perspective is that Rep. Darrell Issa is leading the charge. He has no credibility in California, and that will become apparent, if it isn't already to the rest of the country, any time now."

Not damaging

"So far, [Attorney General Eric] Holder has done a great job serving as the heat shield on this one."

"Issa and the rest of the Republicans look totally partisan and political. It may be most damaging to Romney and congressional Republicans."

"Voters are focused on the economy, not on a political stunt by the Republicans."

"The public already expects some sort of politically motivated hearings out of D.C. This election will hinge much more on the economy and the candidates' prescriptions to solve its problems."

"It's the economy, stupid: jobs, housing, student loans. If the Republicans want to spend a lot of time on "˜Fast and Furious,' they are going to learn real "˜fast' how "˜furious' middle-class voters can get."

"The best that the GOP can hope for is a solidification of Romney's base. Obama supporters see it for what it is — cheap politics."

How damaging are the "Fast and Furious" proceedings to President Obama?

REPUBLICANS (102 Votes)

Very damaging: 14%
Somewhat damaging: 68%
Not damaging: 19%

Very damaging

"It's never the crime; it's the cover-up."

"Self-inflicted wounds always lead the public to question one's ability to lead. Having a perception of being inept and incompetent is not a good combination."

"All depends on the "˜facts,' but clearly the administration is nervous and is handling the PR poorly."

Somewhat damaging

"The damage from a cover-up will far exceed the damages from an honest disclosure. Did people learn nothing from Richard Nixon?"

"It hasn't crossed over into prime time, but it's always the cover-up that gets you. Too many conflicting stories and too many corpses could make this a torpedo to the waterline."

"Could get worse, but no documents will be released until after the election."

"Scandals are usually the fool's gold of American politics. In the end, most people vote their pocketbooks, not their moral code. And, like most scandals, this one is far too complicated to explain simply."

"The mainstream media has limited the president's exposure so far. However, if the president doesn't back off his executive-privilege claim, the impact may move to very damaging."

Not damaging

"Inside baseball. Not part of any larger narrative. Unfortunately for the president, however, the story remains the economy."

"Is there anyone upset about this who wasn't already going to vote against Obama?"

"Most people have no idea what it is."

"They have managed to portray this as Republican overreaching."

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.