A running narrative -- sometime prominent, other times latent -- in the 2012 election is Romney's Mormonism, and whether it might scare away many a good evangelical Republican from the voting booth. The story goes like this: Conservative evangelical Christians, a pillar of the GOP electorate, will be so turned off by Romney and his strange religious beliefs that they will avoid voting altogether, even though they prefer Romney to Obama. In turn, Obama's path to victory gets all the easier.
Indeed, there's some scary evidence supporting that story (scary for the GOP): 22 percent of voters polled said they wouldn't vote for a Mormon, according to Gallup. In all but two primary states, Romney has worse exit poll numbers among evangelicals than non-evangelicals. But, to borrow a word from Obama, there's hope.
In a new study from the Brookings Institute, Matthew M. Chingos and Michael Henderson gave one of four prompts to survey respondents before asking them their likelihood of voting for Romney or Obama. One prompt mentioned that Romney was running for president, one said he was Mormon, one emphasized similarities between Mormons and traditional Christians, and the last emphasized the differences. It was the researchers' way of modeling what they anticipate happening during the election, reflecting different and changing levels of knowledge about Romney's religion.