Mitt Romney has polled well ahead of Rick Santorum in Illinois the last few days, but his campaign told the Huffington Post that they expect the race to be closer than the polls predict. Santorum doesn't appear to agree, though: he's flying to Pennsylvania tonight. His speech after polls close will be delivered from Gettysburg, which the Associated Press says is Santorum's symbolic nod to Illinois' Abraham Lincoln. However, the town is also the site of the worst mass slaughter of the Civil War, in which Robert E. Lee's invasion of the North was crushed. That's less pleasant symbolism for an insurgent candidate.
The primary by the numbers:
Delegates: 69. Only five states award more. But only 54 will be selected today.
Unbound delegates: 12, selected in June at the state party's convention.
Delegates Santorum can't win: 10, because he didn't fill out delegate slates in all the congressional districts. He had a similar problem in Ohio.
Money in: In February, Romney raised $11.5 million, Santorum raised $9 million, Paul raised $3.3 million, Gingrich raised $2.6 million -- and has $1.5 million in debt.
Polls: Romney is averaging a 10-point lead over Santorum, according to Real Clear Politics. But Santorum has consistently performed better than polls predict.
We'll be liveblogging the returns starting at about 7p.m. Eastern time, an hour before polls close. Be sure to join us in the comments!
10:01p.m.: Romney did what he has so far had not been able to do tonight. No, not win evangelicals -- he still lost those guys. But his campaign managed to not make a victory look lame by declaring he'd win big in advance. With 61 percent reporting, Romney has 48 percent and Santorum has 35 percent. (Paul is beating Gingrich for third.) Romney finally looked a little relaxed -- he even let through some real smiles -- during his victory speech. He was surrounded by women, but exit polls showed that unlike in earlier states, he actually performed better among men. Santorum was his angry self, though he did steal a line from Newt Gingrich: that this is the most important election since 1860. (Not everyone shares this analysis.) Santorum has turned to campaigning in Pennsylvania, while Romney has turned, for what feels like the millionth time, to going after Obama. We'll see if it sticks. Louisiana votes March 24, and Santorum is polling 13 points ahead.
9:58p.m.: Santorum vows to fight till his homestate, where he says he'll win lots of delegates. While he revived his campaign by winning in the Midwest, he's lost several big states there recently: Michigan, Ohio, and now Illinois.
9:53p.m.: "Low turnout tonight. A nominee that depresses turnout won't beat @BarackObama. Still time for a conservative," Newt Gingrich tweets. As polls come in, he's slipping below Ron Paul. With 56 percent of precincts reporting, Paul has 9 percent and Gingrich has 8 percent.
9:48p.m.: If Santorum were a little older, he'd be the mean old man in the neighborhood who won't give you your baseball back when you it into his yard. In the bottom right corner, that's his face after he tells a joke that gets huge cheers.
9:42p.m.: Santorum's scrappy campaign is known for its bad lighting at campaign appearances. It looks really bad tonight on C-SPAN:
And better, but not much, on CNN:
9:37p.m.: "Romney unable to break through with key constituencies tonight, like voters who do not like Mitt Romney," The New York Times' Nate Silver tweets.
9:35p.m.: With 47 percent of precincts reporting, Romney has 50 percent and Santorum has 33 percent.
9:32p.m.: But Romney still looks uncomfortable sometimes during his applause lines. Here, he said he would make the military so strong no one would try to test it. How big would that have to be? The U.S. military is already better financed that most of the world's militaries combined.
9:30p.m.: Romney's giving a better speech than usual -- he even got the crowd to laugh twice. He's ignored Santorum and only criticized Obama, using some classic conservative lines like mocking Obama's past as a law professor.
9:22p.m.: Romney always looks more genuine on nights he wins.
9:16p.m.: A marital moment as Ann introduces her husband.
9:07p.m.: With 31 percent of precincts reporting, Romney has 54 percent to Santorum's 29 percent.
9:01p.m.: Santorum's new theme is "Freedom." That is reportedly why he's going to riff on Abraham Lincoln from Gettysburg tonight. This will include freedom from government intervention into healthcare. But any Ron Paul fan will tell you Lincoln has a mixed record on freedom -- he freed the slaves but was a gross violator of habeas corpus.
8:50p.m: Romney's victory party crowd is filling up, and he's expected to speak in about 10 minutes.
8:47p.m.: With 20 percent of precincts reporting, Romney has 56 percent to Santorum's 27 percent.
8:43p.m.: NBC and CNN join Fox in projecting Romney as the winner. Fox has been first in most of these primary races, going back to Iowa, when Karl Rove had the inside scoop on what was in the missing vote tallies.
8:41p.m.: With 8 percent of precincts reporting, Romney has 54 percent, Santorum 28 percent, Paul has 10 percent, and Gingrich has 7 percent. The New York Times' map indicates most of the ballots counted have come from cities and suburbs, which is where Romney does well.
8:34p.m.: Fox News declares Romney the winner.
8:33p.m.: With 1 percent of precincts reporting, ROmney has 54 percent, Santorum has 29 percent, Paul has 10 percent, and Gingrich has 6 percent.
8:32p.m.: NBC News' Chuck Todd points out that Romney loses among the very conservative only because so many of them are evangelicals. He and Santorum are tied among very conservative non-evangelicals.
8:28p.m.: Protesters outside Santorum's rally in Gettysburg:
(Photo via Reuters.)
8:24p.m.: Romney won more than half of non-evangelicals -- 52 percent. Santorum won evangelicals.
8:13p.m.: One of these campaigns is better at setting up election parties than the other:
Santorum's above, Romney's below.
8:10p.m.: The only age group Santorum won was people in their 40s.
8:07p.m.: One of the odd things that's happened since contraception became part of the GOP primary is that while independent women have soured on on Republicans, Republican women have started liking Santorum -- the family values guy -- more and more. Tonight CNN exit polls show Romney has a tiny gender gap, even though for the first few primaries, he performed better among women. This time, he won 46 percent of men and 44 percent of women. Santorum won 32 percent of men but 38 percent of women.
8:02p.m.: Polls have closed. Romney is leading, but no networks have called.
7:55p.m.: Record low turnout tonight, the Chicago Tribune reports. At 2p.m. it was 15 percent; the current record holder is 1996, when turnout was 32 percent.
7:36p.m.: Santorum has been urged to smile a lot during this primary. It doesn't appear to come naturally. Here he is defending his line that he doesn't care about the unemployment rate:
Not smiley. But he looked like he was trying his hardest to smile Monday on MSNBC's Morning Joe. He made his usual angry face while answering each question, but when he quit talking, he'd smile awkwardly every time:
7:34p.m.: Romney outspent Santorum 7 to 1 in Illinois, but almost 60 percent of voters in the state say the ads played little to no role in their vote, The New York Times points out. Santorum's superPAC spent $530,111 on ads, while Romney's superPAC spent $4 million. All for nothing, if voters are telling the truth. Does anyone ever look at those numbers and calculate how many times that sum could have paid off your student loans? No? Just me? (The answer is: so many times.)
7:24p.m.: Romney's Secret Service protection while he speaks in Peoria, Illinois. His code name is reportedly "Javelin."
(Photo via Associated Press.)
7:19p.m.: Exit polls show Republican voters aren't tired of the primary at all. A third say they want the contest to keep going even if their guy loses; two-thirds they want it to go on for months as long as their guy wins. Well, we've got a little bit of bad news for them: ABC News' Michael Falcone reports that Santorum's campaign expects it to be an early night. As in the margin will be wide enough to declare the winner quickly.
7:10p.m.: It looks like Republican voters are splitting in familiar ways: exit polls show Romney winning urban areas, moderates, the well-educated and well-off, while Santorum winning the boonies, conservatives, and the less educated and less wealthy. More than 40 percent had "reservations" about their candidate, the Wall Street Journal reports.
This article is from the archive of our partner The Wire.
Stories of gray areas are exactly what more men need to hear.
The story of Aziz Ansari and “Grace” is playing out as a sort of Rorschach test.
One night in the lives of two young people with vintage cameras is crystallizing debate over an entire movement. Depending on how readers were primed to see the ink blot, it can be taken as evidence that the ongoing cultural audit is exactly on track—getting more granular in challenging unhealthy sex-related power dynamics—or that it has gone off the rails, and innocent men are now suffering, and we are collectively on the brink of a sex panic.
Since the story’s publication on Saturday (on the website Babe, without comment from Ansari, and attributed to a single anonymous source), some readers have seen justice in Ansari’s humiliation. Some said they would no longer support his work. They saw in this story yet another case of a man who persisted despite literal and implied cues that sex was not what a woman wanted.Some saw further proof that the problems are systemic, permeating even “normal” encounters.
Allegations against the comedian are proof that women are angry, temporarily powerful—and very, very dangerous.
Sexual mores in the West have changed so rapidly over the past 100 years that by the time you reach 50, intimate accounts of commonplace sexual events of the young seem like science fiction: You understand the vocabulary and the sentence structure, but all of the events take place in outer space. You’re just too old.
This was my experience reading the account of one young woman’s alleged sexual encounter with Aziz Ansari, published by the website Babe this weekend. The world in which it constituted an episode of sexual assault was so far from my own two experiences of near date rape (which took place, respectively, during the Carter and Reagan administrations, roughly between the kidnapping of the Iran hostages and the start of the Falklands War) that I just couldn’t pick up the tune. But, like the recent New Yorker story “Cat Person”—about a soulless and disappointing hookup between two people who mostly knew each other through texts—the account has proved deeply resonant and meaningful to a great number of young women, who have responded in large numbers on social media, saying that it is frighteningly and infuriatingly similar to crushing experiences of their own. It is therefore worth reading and, in its way, is an important contribution to the present conversation.
Coates says he is "mystified as anybody else” over West's critique.
If there’s real beef between the Harvard philosopher Cornel West and The Atlantic’s Ta-Nehisi Coates, Coates says he doesn’t understand it. West is a vocal critic of Coates and his status as a public intellectual.
Coates addressed the controversy at a panel Tuesday hosted by The Atlantic, saying he remains confused why the feud started in the first place, and that he can’t seem to find a huge difference in the things West has spoken about and what Coates himself has written.
Coates spoke about the first time he saw Cornel West 20 years ago, and found it surreal to have that same person “write critical things about you when they have so clearly not read your work.”
“I am mystified as anybody else” about West’s argument, Coates said, adding that he hopes people read Race Matters, West’s groundbreaking 1993 book.
The mass death of 200,000 saiga provides a dark omen for what might happen to wildlife in a changing world.
It took just three weeks for two-thirds of all the world’s saiga to die. It took much longer to work out why.
The saiga is an endearing antelope, whose bulbous nose gives it the comedic air of a Dr. Seuss character. It typically wanders over large tracts of Central Asian grassland, but every spring, tens of thousands of them gather in the same place to give birth. These calving aggregations should be joyous events, but the gathering in May 2015 became something far more sinister when 200,000 saiga just dropped dead. They did so without warning, over a matter of days, in gathering sites spread across 65,000 square miles—an area the size of Florida. Whatever killed them was thorough and merciless: Across a vast area, every last saiga perished.
Steve Bannon stonewalled a House committee, then promptly agreed to an interview with the special counsel—the latest example of how Mueller is moving ahead as lawmakers feud and spin their wheels.
On Tuesday, Steve Bannon spent hours behind closed doors with the House Intelligence Committee. It was rough. The former White House chief strategist stonewalled lawmakers, they said, even after members from both parties issued a subpoena. Then, on Wednesday, CNN reported that Bannon has struck a deal with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s team for an interview.
The disparate results obtained from Bannon neatly symbolize the difference between Mueller’s probe and the various congressional panels, all of which are in their own ways investigating Russian interference in the 2016 election and what role the Trump campaign played in it. The congressional panels are high drama, but low results, riven by procedural hurdles, partisan foodfights, and what appears to be interference from the White House. Mueller, meanwhile, has kept his head down and his lips sealed, with most news about his probe emerging from outside sources or from court documents, but all appearances suggest a team moving slowly but inexorably and effectively forward.
Entertainment glorifying or excusing predatory male behavior is everywhere—from songs about “blurred lines” to TV shows where rapists marry their victims.
Edward Cullen. Chuck Bass. Lloyd Dobler. Spike from Buffy the Vampire Slayer. That guy from Love Actually with the sign. The lead singers of emo bands with their brooding lyrics. Many of the romantic heroes that made me swoon in my youth followed a pattern and, like a Magic Eye picture, only with a little distance did the shape of it pop out to me. All of these characters in some way crossed, or at least blurred, the lines of consent, aggressively pursuing women with little or no regard for their desires. But these characters’ actions, and those of countless other leading men across the pop-culture landscape, were more likely to be portrayed as charming than scary.
Romance often involves a bit of pursuit—someone has to make a move, after all. And there’s certainly a spectrum of pursuit: Sometimes supposedly romantic gestures in pop culture veer toward the horrendous or illegal; sometimes they’re just a bit creepy or overzealous. But revisiting some of these fictional love stories can leave one with the understanding that intrusive attention is proof of men’s passion, and something women should welcome. In a number of cases, male characters who were acknowledged to have gone too far—by, for example, actually forcing themselves on women—were quickly forgiven, or their actions compartmentalized and forgotten.
A viral story highlights the lingering difference between the language—and the practice—of consent.
It was true that everything did seem okay to me, so when I heard that it was not the case for her, I was surprised and concerned. I took her words to heart and responded privately after taking the time to process what she had said.
I continue to support the movement that is happening in our culture. It is necessary and long overdue.
That was Aziz Ansari, responding to a story that was published about him over the weekend, a story that doubled for many readers as an allegation not of criminal sexual misconduct, but of misbehavior of a more subtle strain: aggression. Entitlement. Excessive persistence. His statement, accordingly—not an apology but not, either, a denial—occupies that strange and viscous space between defiance and regret. I was surprised and concerned. I took her words to heart.
More comfortable online than out partying, post-Millennials are safer, physically, than adolescents have ever been. But they’re on the brink of a mental-health crisis.
One day last summer, around noon, I called Athena, a 13-year-old who lives in Houston, Texas. She answered her phone—she’s had an iPhone since she was 11—sounding as if she’d just woken up. We chatted about her favorite songs and TV shows, and I asked her what she likes to do with her friends. “We go to the mall,” she said. “Do your parents drop you off?,” I asked, recalling my own middle-school days, in the 1980s, when I’d enjoy a few parent-free hours shopping with my friends. “No—I go with my family,” she replied. “We’ll go with my mom and brothers and walk a little behind them. I just have to tell my mom where we’re going. I have to check in every hour or every 30 minutes.”
Those mall trips are infrequent—about once a month. More often, Athena and her friends spend time together on their phones, unchaperoned. Unlike the teens of my generation, who might have spent an evening tying up the family landline with gossip, they talk on Snapchat, the smartphone app that allows users to send pictures and videos that quickly disappear. They make sure to keep up their Snapstreaks, which show how many days in a row they have Snapchatted with each other. Sometimes they save screenshots of particularly ridiculous pictures of friends. “It’s good blackmail,” Athena said. (Because she’s a minor, I’m not using her real name.) She told me she’d spent most of the summer hanging out alone in her room with her phone. That’s just the way her generation is, she said. “We didn’t have a choice to know any life without iPads or iPhones. I think we like our phones more than we like actual people.”
The president denies paying a porn actress not to speak about an alleged affair, but he’s often linked payments to confidentiality agreements in the past.
Breaking up is hard to do. A pile of money and some crack legal help can’t heal a broken heart, but they can go a long way to guaranteeing that whatever bad feelings emerge from the relationship don’t make it to the public. At various times in the past, Donald Trump has struck deals with women in his life, or formerly in his life, exchanging money for silence.
It’s not a perfect solution. Over the last week, a series of stories have focused on Trump’s 2006 interactions with Stephanie Clifford, an adult actress who performed under the nom de porn Stormy Daniels. Trump and Daniels reportedly met at a golf tournament in July 2006, more than a year after he married Melania, his third wife. At various points in the past, Daniels has given interviews to various outlets alleging that she had a sexual relationship with him.
What’s happening to New York City is a microcosm of what’s happening around the country—the hollowing out of the U.S. city.
It was an April 1st headline, but the statistics were no joke. "People are fleeing New York at an alarming rate," the New York Postannounced. And indeed, they are—sort of.
For starters, a bit of terminology. The Census Bureau tracks two sorts of American movers. First, there are “domestic migrants,” who move from one U.S. county to another. Second, there are “international migrants,” who move from a foreign country to America. Somewhat confusingly, the latter definition does not mean “all immigrants.” A Guatemalan-born woman who lives in Houston for two years and then moves Dallas is considered a domestic migrant, since she’s moving between American cities.
That sounds like some methodological mumbo jumbo, but it’s critical for understanding what’s happening to New York and the rest of America’s largest cities.