With time running out, lawmakers still haven't crafted any bill that can raise the debt limit. Will they manage to pass one by Aug. 2?
The aspirations don't match the situation.
To hear them talk, the White House and every key player on Capitol Hill wants to avoid the first-ever default in American history. That's the aspiration.
The situation is no bill exists in the House or Senate that can raise the debt ceiling above its current $14.3 trillion limit. Forget whip counts. There's nothing to whip. Every indication is the House and Senate are moving separately and willfully ignoring the peculiar politics of each chamber. A House bill is likely to be posted Monday with debate beginning Wednesday. The Senate may have its own bill by Monday as well. The chances of them being compatible are worse than Treasury issuing dollar bills made of rubber.
From National Journal:
Beating the Heat on Capitol Hill
The 11th-hour arrival (deus ex machina comes to mind) of debt-ceiling proposals is meant to calm markets in Asia, Europe and America. What the political class seems to under-appreciate (or miss entirely) is that traders don't traffic in spin, talking points, frameworks, outlines or executive summaries. Traders live in a cold, bloodless world of data. When there isn't any data, they look for the next best thing -- a bill, actual legislation that underling traders and trading houses can translate into data. Absent that, traders move on their own and ride the market psychology, and with other tangible, countable forces and factors.