Earlier this month, we wondered who would be the first 2012 contender to drop out of the race. Tim Pawlenty is looking like a pretty good candidate. A new national poll of Republican voters puts the former Minnesota governor at 5 percent, Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen explains. That's down from 9 percent in June and 13 percent in May. Obviously, it's "not a good trajectory."
He needs to do 100 events in 100 different places where he picks up the support of at least 5 people who will works their hearts out on his behalf. If those 500 people can bring 10 friends and associates to the Iowa Straw Poll, Pawlenty will have his 5000 votes. If he can only get 250 people to bring 10 of their friends and associates, he's done.
He is utterly lacking in charisma. I usually avoid these, but I agreed to speak at a regional organizing meeting for the party in Minnesota just to see him speak: he was utterly boring and I decided not to pitch his campaign. At a cocktail reception for the event, attended by 125+ activists, he and his wife were standing by themselves--no one was interested in talking to him and he made no effort to work the crowd.The first presidential campaign, I worked for John Connally’s; at an event like this one 120 of 125 attendees would have been all over him and he would have found the remaining 5. And Connally got 1 delegate, but in fairness he was running against Ronald Reagan.
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