Democratic reforms were supposed to drive down costs and expand access, but a new study forecasts employers rolling back benefits
The more a company knows about coming changes to the nation's health care laws, the more likely it is to consider radically restructuring the way it provides insurance to employees, according to a study by the consulting firm McKinsey and Co.
The study, which is being circulated among Republicans, predicts that as many as 30 percent of companies will stop offering health insurance benefits, reduce the level of benefits, or offer benefits only to certain employees. If this prediction holds, the number of Americans who could see changes to their health insurance would be far more than the 9 million to 10 million estimated by the Congressional Budget Office.
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That means that the cost of subsidizing plans for those people -- about $19 billion a year, according to the CBO -- could more than triple. And, if the report's predictions are borne out, many Americans would lose their health insurance.
The study contradicts at least three others predicting that reform will have a negligible effect on employer-sponsored insurance. A Rand study finds the number of employees who would lose insurance to be "small," and the Urban Institute believes that the percentage "would not differ significantly."