The GOP's 2010 momentum is gone, and neither party has a discernible edge
Last week's smartest observation came from Steven Law, the president and CEO of the Republican uber-PAC American Crossroads after Republicans lost the special congressional election in New York's 26th District.
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Law said, "What is clear is that this election is a wake-up call for anyone who thinks that 2012 will be just like 2010. It's going to be a tougher environment, Democrats will be more competitive, and we need to play at the top of our game to win big next year." Law is a former campaign manager and chief of staff to the most cold-blooded of Republicans, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. He did that before directing the National Republican Congressional Committee and later working as general counsel for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Democrats who were so badly battered last year desperately want to see the special election results as having seismic import, ignoring angles and odd corners that three- and four-way special elections often have.
The total Democratic and Green Party vote was 48 percent, so more than half of the votes cast were for the Republican and tea party candidates. The argument that a significant number of tea party voters would have voted Democratic, absent their candidate, is unconvincing.