7 Things to Watch for in Tonight's GOP Debate

Tonight, at St. Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire, all of the major GOP candidates (except Jon Huntsman) will gather for a debate. Since several top-tier candidates skipped the last one, this is considered the informal kickoff to the 2012 race. I'll have a post-debate report later on tonight. In the meantime, here's a tip sheet on what to look for:

Will Romney Look Like a Frontrunner? Polls show Mitt Romney ahead in every early primary and caucus state--Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. He's the clear frontrunner, and seems more on-message than the rest of the field. Will he also stand out in the debate? He'd better, because there's only one direction to go if he doesn't.

Health Care or the Economy? Mitt Romney has wisely made the economy the centerpiece of his campaign. That's mostly what his announcement speech was about, and even if he doesn't always hit the right notes, it's the area he's best suited to run on and the issue of greatest concern to voters. But his fellow candidates won't do him any favors--they'd like to talk about health care, his great weakness. Over the last week, several have attacked Romney, most prominently Tim Pawlenty, who assailed the new health care law as "ObamneyCare." If the debate's focus is health care, Romney loses.

Can Cain Keep it Going? A Fox News focus group deemed Herman Cain the big winner in the last Republican debate, in South Carolina, and many other folks did, too. His performance brought a wave of interest in the Hermanator Experience, and Cain has enjoyed more momentum than anyone else since then. A recent Iowa poll had him tied for second place. But that debate didn't include several of the big names participating tonight. Now that he's drawing more than single digits in the polls, Cain will also draw some attacks. If he stands out again, he'll be an interesting guy to watch.

Bachmann Overdrive? Michele Bachmann is inching ever closer to a presidential run. She's hired Ed Rollins, former campaign manager for Ronald Reagan (and many others), and showed her fundraising prowess. A lot of people think she's poised to do well in Iowa, where she was born, and where her staunch social conservatism and Tea Party identity could appeal to caucus-goers. But how will she perform on stage? Bachmann's grasp of the facts can be a little shaky (U.S. history isn't her forte). On the other hand, she's the only woman participating, she's got a peppy charisma, and she could definitely stand out.

Will Newt Sink Like the Titanic? Nobody enters this debate in worst shape than Newt Gingrich. In fact, nobody's ever entered a debate in worse shape than Newt Gingrich*. Most of his staff quit on him last week, after his Tiffany's episode and his bizarre Greek cruise. If Newt is going to turn things around, he'd better make a big impression--because his ground game isn't going to win it for him.

Any Love for the Libertarian? Without Gary Johnson in the debate, Ron Paul is the lone libertarian. Paul is a presidential stalwart and he has more endorsements and early money than in the past. But he hasn't yet made much of an impression in this race, which is odd because so much is going his way. Last cycle, it was a debate exchange with Rudy Giuliani on foreign policy than thrust Paul into the headlines. With Paul's unique views, that's always a possibility.

Will the Ghost of Palin or Weiner Appear? The two biggest stories in politics these last couple weeks have been Sarah Palin's presidential flirtations and Anthony Weiner's creepy Twitter flirtations. Will either intrude on tonight's debate? You'd have to think they won't. But on the other hand, any candidate who takes a shot at Palin or Weiner is a candidate guaranteed to get plenty of press attention.

*Unless Anthony Weiner shows up.

Drop-down image credit: Reuters

More comfortable online than out partying, post-Millennials are safer, physically, than adolescents have ever been. But they’re on the brink of a mental-health crisis.

One day last summer, around noon, I called Athena, a 13-year-old who lives in Houston, Texas. She answered her phone—she’s had an iPhone since she was 11—sounding as if she’d just woken up. We chatted about her favorite songs and TV shows, and I asked her what she likes to do with her friends. “We go to the mall,” she said. “Do your parents drop you off?,” I asked, recalling my own middle-school days, in the 1980s, when I’d enjoy a few parent-free hours shopping with my friends. “No—I go with my family,” she replied. “We’ll go with my mom and brothers and walk a little behind them. I just have to tell my mom where we’re going. I have to check in every hour or every 30 minutes.”

Those mall trips are infrequent—about once a month. More often, Athena and her friends spend time together on their phones, unchaperoned. Unlike the teens of my generation, who might have spent an evening tying up the family landline with gossip, they talk on Snapchat, the smartphone app that allows users to send pictures and videos that quickly disappear. They make sure to keep up their Snapstreaks, which show how many days in a row they have Snapchatted with each other. Sometimes they save screenshots of particularly ridiculous pictures of friends. “It’s good blackmail,” Athena said. (Because she’s a minor, I’m not using her real name.) She told me she’d spent most of the summer hanging out alone in her room with her phone. That’s just the way her generation is, she said. “We didn’t have a choice to know any life without iPads or iPhones. I think we like our phones more than we like actual people.”