A new Winthrop poll of South Carolina voters is out this morning, and it ought to put the brakes on all the Donald Trump speculation--or at least on his strength in the South. Among those "definitely" planning to vote in the South Carolina Republican primary in 2012 here's how the candidates fared:
Mike Huckabee 19.1%
Mitt Romney 16.6%
Donald Trump 11.3%
Newt Gingrich 8.1%
Sarah Palin 7.9%
Chris Christie 6.2%
Michelle Bachmann 3.7%
Tim Pawlenty 2.1%
Ron Paul 2.1%
Herman Cain 2.1%
Haley Barbour 2.0%
Rick Santorum 1.8%
Not Sure 13.6%
No shocker that Huckabee, who performed well here in 2008, leads the field, or that Romney fared well. From a national-sanity perspective, it's nice that Trump's not lapping the field, although he's running a strong third--second, if you expect Huckabee to pass on another run, as most do.
Earlier, I spoke to Scott Huffmon, who directs the Winthrop Poll, and for whom I have an enduring fondness, because he helped me devise this South Carolina campaign strategy for Stephen Colbert in 2008. Hoffman's perspective on the poll is refreshingly candid and down to earth. "This poll is nothing but a snapshot of the landscape these folks are wading into," he said. "Nobody has really ginned up their campaign yet." It's best to regard these results as the starting positions in a NASCAR race, with Huckabee in the pole.