The American Action Forum, a conservative think tank headed by Douglas Holtz-Eakin, released polling today on a handful of Midwestern races, and it brings some bad news for Democrats.


Hotline OnCall's Jeremy Jacobs gives the overview:

Midwest Dems Under Siege: The conservative American Action Forum is out with a slate of Midwest polls today, and the news isn't too good for Dems. The group surveyed voters in IA 03, IN 02, MI 07, MO 03, OH 01, OH 15, OH 16, and WI 08. Some key findings: When the individual polls are taken together, the 54% of respondents say they want a new member of Congress, while only 35% said their current Congressman deserves re-election. Also troubling: Pres. Obama is viewed unfavorably by 49% of voters in these districts and only 44% view him favorably.

We can break down the polls into three categories: Looks good for GOPers, looks good for Dems and a toss up (based on the numbers). Reps. Leonard Boswell (D-IA), Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH), John Boccieri (D-OH), Mark Schauer (D-MI) and Steve Kagen (D-WI) look to be in deep trouble, based on the polling. But Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO 03) is in credible shape, while Ohio Reps. Steve Driehaus and Betty Sutton in toss-up territory.

And Josh Kraushaar digs deeper, finding a bleak outlook for Boccieri, a possibility that Kilroy will bounce back from her polling deficit to challenger Steve Stivers, and Ohio Republican Senate nominee Rob Portman doing surprisingly well in Democratic-leaning Cincinnati.



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