Robert Gibbs caused quite a stir on Sunday when he warned that Republicans could take back the House -- a comment very likely meant as a warning shot to a Democratic base that is not nearly as fired up and ready to go as its Republican counterpart.
The Democratic base has looked shaky in areas where Obama lost to Clinton in the primary, such as Massachusetts' South Shore. But the areas where Obama lost to Clinton and then did worse than John Kerry are looking especially vulnerable.
Swing State Project mapped these out. Only one district went from Kerry to McCain, but 21 in Barone's "Jacksonian Belt," seven on the Gulf Coast, five in Scott Brown Territory, three on the Gold Cost of Florida, one on Long Island, and one in Arizona slipped for Obama.
Among these 37 districts, Oklahoma's Dan Boren represents the reddest one for a Democrat. It gave Kerry 41 percent, Obama 34 percent, and in a recent poll, gave Obama a 27 percent approval rating. But the Blue Dog seems to be living by Tip O'Neill's golden rule and has a 51 percent approval rating.
Boren seems to be pulling off the challenging task of making the election a local referendum and not a national choice. Whether or not his Democratic brethren can do the same will determine whether Gibbs was right or not.
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