Super Tuesday 2: Election Liveblog

Follow news, results and analysis live as we track the primaries happening tonight across the country.

MA (11:42): Real question to ask: going forward, do Dem candidates / members of Congress act differently because of labor's $10 million in AR?

CG (11:38): You may not hear any conciliatory notes from labor tonight after Halter's loss. From Working America:
"Today's election was about what working people expect in a leader. We heard from thousands of people across Arkansas that they wanted to elect someone who would listen and fight for them," said Working America Executive Director Karen Nussbaum. "While that didn't happen tonight, Sen. Lincoln certainly heard the voices of thousands of Arkansans tonight - they won't stand for her corporate agenda any longer."

CG (11:35): Ouch. Big time ouch. A White House official has some harsh words for labor, calls up Ben Smith to voice them:
"Organized labor just flushed $10 million of their members' money down the toiled on a pointless exercise," the official said. "If even half that total had been well-targeted and applied in key House races across this country, that could have made a real difference in November."

Remember, the man who runs the White House political shop, Patrick Gaspard, comes straight to the White House from running politics for an SEIU local in NY.

CG (11:33): Angle holds a slim lead over Lowden in Nevada, but precincts haven't really reported in a few counties in the southern part of the state (Clark, home to Las Vegas, has only 1/1181 precincts in). Nevada is divided north/south on political affiliations; I'm guessing more votes from the south will help Lowden

CG (11:26): Things going as predicted in Cali so far. with 6.9% reporting, Whitman (65.4%) is safely ahead, as is Fiorina (59%).

CG (11:13): RT @fivethirtyeight Although only 1.2% of the vote is in, it is safe to say that Mickey Kaus will NOT be the Democratic Senate nominee in California.

MA (11:09): In Iowa, the establishment candidate in the state's 3rd congressional district is going to lose to an insurgent state senator.  Not the best night for Republican congressional recruits as well.

CG (11:07): A tough loss for labor in Arkansas. After putting a combined $6.7 million into the state to back Halter, having talked to him about a potential bid before he jumped in, the big unions came close to getting one more "yes" vote on the Employee Free Choice Act--which is what they've wanted for years, and, at times, has been all they've needed to get it over the line. Halter had momentum coming into tonight, and he polls better against the Republican Boozman (down 11% in the latest Kos/R2K poll, vs. Lincoln's 20-point deficit). He would have had a hard time winning, but any way you slice it it's a tough one to swallow. Labor moves forward having proven it can give someone a scare, if nothing else.

MA (11:02): RT @timodc If 4 term Gov Branstad can only eek out 50.6%, that's just another proof point for @MittRomney's skip Iowa argument.

CG (11:00): AP calls it for Lincoln

CG (10:57): Looks like Brad Zaun will have it locked up in Iowa's 3rd district, to run for Rep. Leonard Boswell's seat--one that's been on Republican radar before. Zaun likes lower taxes and less spending...but there's nothing like a need for ag support to temper that fiscal conservatism

CG (10:50): Halter's slipping. Down from 49% to 48%, 52% of counties reporting statewide

MA (10:48): In Arkansas, the automatic recount law does not apply to the primaries -- or so says the SecState there.  Loser can request/pay for one.

CG (10:48): Panic and confusion reigns among labor operatives following the Arkansas Senate race

CG (10:42): First results from Nevada coming in. NV Secretary of State Ross Miller has a snazzy website to track them: Photos of candidates...lightning-fast ticker...what's not to love?

MA (10:39): I don't believe the numbers of out Pulaksi Co. in AR. They literally flipped 30 percentage points with one dump of voters. I doubt this will hold. 

CG (10:23): Halter inching closer. A lot closer. 50.74% to 49.26%, Lincoln leads

CG (10:19): Dave Weigel writes that Sen. Jim DeMint may be challenged by a crazy person--self-funding Democrat Alvin Greene, and unemployed 32-year-old Army veteran who disappeared after filing for candidacy. From the Free Times:

Asked if he thought it was a good investment to spend so much of his own money in a two-way Democratic primary to run against a popular Republican with millions in campaign cash, Greene replied: "Rather than just save the $10,000 and just go and buy gasoline with it, just take [it] and just be unemployed for [an] even longer period of time, I mean, that wouldn't make any sense, um, just, um, but, uh, yes, uh ... lowering these gas prices ... that will create jobs, too. Anything that will lower the gasoline prices. Offshore drilling, the energy package, all that."

Investing in the campaign to lower the gas prices, instead of just buying the gasoline. Indeed.

CG (10:07): South Carolina's gubernatorial race becomes TARP vs. stimulus: Gresham Barrett voted for TARP, twice against the stimulus; Nikki Haley voted in the SC state House to accept stimulus money in the state budget

MA (10:03): So what if Lincoln wins? We will have to revise our theories of the case. A quarter of the vote is in, and she's holding on. 4,000 vote margin. Waiting to hear unions spin how they spent $10 million ...

CG (10:02): So Barrett backed TARP...not an easy sell in SC, in a one-on-one race with Nikki Haley. Then again, Haley may have her own state legislature votes to defend

CG (9:56): So Poizner is probably not going to win in the CA-gov race. But he ran a pretty creative campaign, shifting gears to a heavy immigration focus after SB1070. One of few candidates in big-time races to make a big point of supporting it and pressuring his opponent to do the same. Check out the Poizner homepage

CG (9:51): If my basic algebra skills are still intact, Haley needed 889 more votes to force a runoff

CG (9:49): Haley's still a big favorite to beat Barrett--two weeks isn't a lot of time to erase a 28-percentage-point deficit

MA (9:48): AP says Nikki Haley v. Gresham Barrett, run-off June 22. Haley got ..eek, 49%.

MA (9:48): Also: correction: : John Adler (D) is the incumbent in NJ 04.  Meant to say to look at % of those nominated. Lots of low-to-mid fifties.

MA (9:47): Most of what you're seeing in AR is absentee/early vote, which Lincoln has down. Don't begin to extrapolate the race until 35% or so of the vote is in.

MA (9:47): Another thing to note tonight: the low percentages of incumbents who get renominated. Like Jon Runyan in NJ03. 44% voted for someone else.

CG (9:45): Wow--Haley is almost there. 49.44%, with 16 of 46 counties reporting. Keeps trending up as more counties come in. She just might avoid a runoff...and deprive us of two intense weeks of GOP South Carolina affair scandal and dirty politics

MA (9:43): Another TARP head: Bob Inglis forced into a run-off in SC 04. And he's not the favorite. Run-off in two weeks

CG (9:34): Whoever comes out of the CA-Sen primary (likely former HP CEP Carly Fiorina) will have a shot at making a run at Sen. Barbara Boxer (D)--she's only at 37% approval/46% disapproval, according to PPP, despite leading GOP challengers by single digits

CG (9:31): Nikki Haley keeps inching closer to 50%...47.11% with 11 of 46 counties reporting. If she keeps going, she might actually avoid a runoff from alleged affair-story pusher Gresham Barrett

CG (9:25): Joe Wilson wins his primary in SC. Crushes challenger Phil Black 55%-15%. Which means he'll be back for the next State of the Union.

CG (9:20): RT @fixfelicia Runner up: Frederick Conquest in NV

CG (9:19): RT @TheFix Best name on ballot tonight? Early nominee: Mick Zais. (Running in SC for Superintendent of Education)

MA (9:16): RT @Dave_Wasserman So far, the well-funded Rs against Ds Rush Holt #NJ12 and Frank Pallone #NJ06 are trailing primaries...will it hold?

MA (9:15): RT @PatrickRuffini This is not a good year to be running with a title in front of your name, is it?

CG (9:13): AFL-CIO thinks it hit all its turnout #'s for Halter in Arkansas. Working America talked to 1,300 potential voters. Amid all the spending, its easy to forget that labor's old-school role is canvassing and "boots on the ground," as everyone is so fond of saying

CG (9:10): Thanks to everyone out there for the Strasburg updates in election night liveblogs. I had that on TiVO.

CG (9:09): How much does it actually matter who wins the Arkansas Senate primary? Both trail GOP Rep. John Boozman by 20+ (well, 11-25, not counting Rasmussen); state went 59%/39% for McCain in '08

CG (9:06): Labor has been canvassing all day for Halter. Lincoln's got the early edge, with only 1% in 

MA (9:02): In AR, early vote in Pulaksi Co. just came in, af am area Lincoln had to have. She leads 59-41 which surpassed her vote goal, but its WAY early. 

CG (8:59): Hooray for former pro atheletes turned politicians: Jon Runyan, former Eagles tackle, is up in NJ

CG (8:57): Quick pushback from VA Dems on Rigell in VA-05. Wasting no time in getting memo out to reporters about his donations to Obama

MA (8:54): Mostly absentees coming in now from AR. Slow vote counting...

MA (8:53): My theory, which I will accept evidence to try and falsify, is that the TP is an ideological identification not a political movement. In GA 09, Graves benefited from lots of Club for Growth money. Little evidence that his TP support brought voters to the polls. There is some overlap between insurgent candidates who win and TP candidates, but note that in places like Nevada, the TP is not unified around a candidate.

CG (8:47): With SC heading to a runoff, things are going to get interesting. Coincidentally, it looks as if her runoff will be against Gresham Barrett, whose campaign has (it's widely rumored) been pushing the affair stories. The whole thing might only be in its caterpillar stage, with lobbyist Larry Marchant having come forward with an affair story 5 days ago, and with his polygraph coming back inconclusive. More polygraphs, more drama.

MA (8:38): Looks like SC GOV (R) will head to a run-off, with Haley in the pole position. And in SC 04, there's a chance that Bob Inglis won't make it to the run-off...

CG (8:32): This may or may not be a test of Tea Partyism: whether Birther extraordinaire Orly Taitz can win the secretary of state nomination in California. It could just be a test of birtherism. If she does, all bets are off on down-ticket races worldwide.

CG (8:30): Chris Cillizza points out early setbacks for the Tea Party in VA: Hurt, Rigell, and Rob Wittman have all won. Tea Partier Tom Graves, meanwhile, wins the special election in Georgia's 9th district.

CG (8:17): Another good result for the NRCC: Young Gun Scott Rigell, a car dealer who didn't support cash for clunkers but participated out of a "fiduciary responsibility to [his] employees," is well on his way to victory in VA 02. He escapes a crowded primary including a Flat-Tax supporter who sits in second, to challenge Democrat Glenn Nye.

MA (8:14): Patrick Ottenhoff map of the day shows all the pork Arkansas gets from Blanche Lincoln:

MA (7:54): AP calls VA 05 for Richard Hurt. Good for NRCC, more evidence that Tea Party can't organize its way out of a bag. District is a swing one; Democrat Perriello has plenty of money in the bank. 

CG (7:50): For some people, tonight will be ALL about the Tea Party. Democratic election-night spin from Democratic National Committee Communications Director Brad Woodhouse:
Regardless of the outcome of these races, the biggest loser in today's primaries will be the Republican Party, which is being pulled so far towards the right wing fringe most Americans can't recognize it anymore.  The strengthening of the Tea Party within the Republican Party has produced a slate of unattractive general election candidates, a trend that seems bound to continue today.

MA (7:44): Over-repeated zeitgeist this Election Day:  The Night of the Mama Grizzlies. 

MA (7:43): It's (finally) looking good early on for an NRCC Young Gun: Scott Rigell has a solid lead over other Republicans in Virginia's 2nd CD. 

CG (7:43): Will Lt. Gov. Bill Halter's stance on the Employee Free Choice Act matter in the general election in Arkansas? Labor has spent millions on you know he's going to vote for it. But he's skated by without saying so, since it's not "an active bill" in Congress, as he's said. Boozman will surely try to pin him down on this at every chance, but will voters care about it?

MA (7:42): More intelligence from Chuck: as he notes, the best candidate to have taken on Harry Reid was the guy who wants to be appointed to John Ensign's seat (if Ensign is forced to step down ... because of .. well, you know) ... Dean Heller.  But Heller didn't run.

MA (7:40): As Chuck Todd notes just now, the real question for labor now is whether they'll support Bill Halter in the general. He's a huge underdog going in. And the White House does NOT want labor to waste its money. Labor says that Halter might use Rep. John Boozeman's TARP vote against him -- an interesting inversion of sorts. 

CG (7:24): No results yet in South Carolina, with polls just closed. A runoff, to be held in two weeks, is likely: Nikki Haley leads this race solidly (43% to Rep. Gresham Barrett's 23% as the nearest competitor, according to PPP), but she'll have to pull down 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff. If she only takes somewhere in the mid-30%'s tonight, it'll be a race.

MA (7:16): Wonder if Democratic turnout in Arkansas will exceed Republican turnout from a month a go...

CG (7:02): It seems like only three Tuesdays ago that we were following the primaries in Arkansas and Kentucky and the House special election in Pennsylvania's 12th district. 

But tonight we find ourselves amidst another spate of elections to watch, and we'll be following them on this liveblog tonight as results come in. Polls are closing at 7 p.m. ET in South Carolina, where Nikki Haley is favored to win the Republican gubernatorial primary over Rep. Gresham Barrett and Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, despite the recent smattering of affair talk.

Polls close in Arkansas at 8:30 p.m. ET in the heated Democratic primary between Sen. Blanche Lincoln and challenger Bill Halter.

Polls will close at 10 p.m. ET in Nevada, where Tea-Party-backed Sharron Angle is favored to defeat onetime frontrunner and former state GOP chair Sue Lowden in the primary to challenge Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Finally, polls will close at 11 p.m. in California, where former eBay CEO Meg Whitman is favored to defeat conservative tech businessman Steve Poizner in the Republican gubernatorial primary; where another former CEO, HP's Carly Fiorina, is favored to take down the GOP Senate nomination over former Rep. Tom Campbell and Tea-Party-backed Chuck DeVore; and where voters will consider scrapping CA's primary system, letting the top two vote-getters advance to November contests in statewide races.