The latest effort to overturn California's Prop. 8 gay-marriage ban is wrapping up in federal court today, with Ted Olson and David Boies--the attorneys for George W. Bush and Al Gore in the Florida 2000 court case--presenting final arguments. (For a liveblog of what's going on, check in with Firedoglake.) Gay-marriage proponents have voiced optimism about this case since it mirrors the case that successfully ended California's gay-marriage ban in 2008, ultimately leading to the Prop. 8 campaign to ban it again.
The case is being heard by District Judge Vaughn Walker (who heard the al Hamarain case and ruled the NSA's warrantless wiretapping program illegal); it seems likely that, regardless of the result, it will be appealed ad infinitum.
No gay-marriage ballot measures have qualified for California's November 2010 ballot; if the case fails, it is plausible that the diverse community of upstart California gay-rights activists, established California groups, and DC-based gay-rights juggernauts (e.g., the Human Rights Campaign) would move forward with a ballot measure in 2012, the year that more careful gay-rights activists have favored since 2008, due to the bigger, younger, and possibly more liberal turnout of a presidential election year.