Democrats and Republicans say their early canvassing returns in Pennsylvania's 12th CD show a very tight race, and that makes Republicans more anxious than Democrats. Democrats say they're hitting their targets.

And they're still sending out memos pointing to Republicans who say that the race ought to be a GOP win -- something the Democrats would NOT do if they weren't seeing the numbers. Remember, both parties have sophisticated boiler room operations and have volunteers checking voter lists in sample precincts ... and they feed this data into a computer and out pops various projections of turnout.

Across Pennsylvania, it's raining. Turnout, according to Democrats, is "abysmal" in Philadelphia, which is difficult news for Sen. Arlen Specter. Right now, Mayor Michael Nutter and Governor Ed Rendell are doing the TV/Radio rounds to try and open the floodgates.

At this point, both sides believe that Blanche Lincoln won't have enough votes to avoid a run-off in Arkansas. The AP seems to be doing a better job of finding Bill Halter voters to quote, but that could be a function of the voters' activist disposition. Lincoln has historically had a good if understated ground game. But labor has imported a massive one.

No one is seeing anything in Kentucky that would change minds about the expected outcome on the Republican side of the ledger.

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