Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal has a handy tool for speculating what will happen in the 2010 Florida Senate race.
Based on polling, it looks like Gov. Charlie Crist's best chance lies in running as an independent. But if he does, how will it play out?
Different polls show different results. Quinnipiac has Crist winning with 32%; Research2000 has Rubio winning with 32%; Public Policy Polling has Rubio winning with 34%. But Blumenthal has Meek winning comfortably with 38%.
But questions of turnout modeling remain. How much of the GOP, Republican, and independent vote will each candidate get? And how many Republicans, Democrats, and Independents will turn out to vote?
Here's Blumenthal's spreadsheet, in which you can plug in your own numbers for the composition of the electorate--what percent of total voters will be Democrats, Republicans, or independents--and how much of the D, R, or I vote each candidate will get. If you plug in the turnout numbers from the last midterm election in 2006 (36%D, 39%R, 25%I), you get a much closer race.