Predicting Massachusetts: All Signs Point To Turnout

When it comes to electoral politics, all eyes are on the Massachusetts Senate race, which, if Republican Scott Brown wins, could eliminate Democrats' 60-vote majority in the upper chamber. The polling picture is all over the place, as we've got three polls that diverge vastly from one another: a Boston Globe poll (taken Jan. 2 though Jan. 6) shows Democrat Martha Coakley up 17 points; a Rasmussen poll (taken Jan. 4) shows her up 9 points; and a Public Policy Polling poll (taken Jan. 7 through Jan. 9) shows Brown up by one point.

Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal sees, in the seemingly discrepant data, what observers and analysts have said about the race--that it will all come down to turnout, and that if more people show up to the polls, Coakley will win:

The lower the turnout, the better the odds for Scott Brown. These differences indicate that the voters most interested and most likely to vote are Republican, while Democrats are more blase...

Consider the differences in the table below from within Globe/UNH and Rasmussen surveys. Both show a dead even race among the most interested and certain voters, while Coakley leads by huge double-digit margins among all other voters.

In the Globe poll, 74 percent of respondents said they thought Coakley would win, Blumenthal notes--so it will depend on how much interest in the race Democrats can generate. And speaking of that, the DNC is sending national Press Secretary Hari Sevugan to Massachusetts, most likely to mount some attacks.