...Why did Democrats strengthen their majorities in New Hampshire?
...How come Democrats are holding their own in Virginia State Legislative races?
come the New York City mayor's race is so close...even though the race
has already been called...it's not going to be a Bloomberg blowout over
...What's happening in New York's 23rd CD? Why are GOPers suddenly nervous?
Marc Ambinder (9:24 p.m.)
are excited about Michigan's 20th State Senate district, where
candidate Mike Nofs looks like he'll cruise comfortably to victory.
This district was abandoned by a Democrat who left to run for Congress.
Nofs and Griffin are both moderates.
Marc Ambinder 9:15 p.m.)
at very senior levels are worried about New Jersey. Jon Corzine isn't
getting the spread he needs out of Camden County, Chris Christie has a
good lead in Bergen County, (which Real Clear Politics's Mike Memoli
points out is a county that Republicans need to win), and is leading in
Union County. That said, a healthy chunk of Corzine's vote isn't in yet.
Marc Ambinder (9:06 p.m.)
independents are moving to the GOP. That's a big headline. Bad news for
Dems, etc, etc. But. And this is important: these are conservative
independents. Many disassociated with the GOP -- at least in terms of
what they tell pollsters -- because of the GOP brand problems and
because it's cool to be independent in parts of the country and in
parts of states. Don't confuse "moderates" with "independents." Still,
it seems clear that for people who call themselves independent,
Republican messages wear better than Democrats.
Marc Ambinder (8:41 p.m.)
reporting and estimates, the Republican gubernatorial ticket outspent
the Democratic ticket in Virginia by about $8 million. This includes a
large downstate Chamber of Commerce ad buy.
Marc Ambinder (8:09 p.m.)
If Jon Corzine wins re-election, he can thank women, who gave him a
narrow advantage and who voted at higher proportions than men did. Note
the split among moderates and independents; independents,
self-described, clearly were more conservative than moderates, which
says something about the electorate, rather than, I think, the
Marc Ambinder (7:51 p.m.)
Obama's Nobel Prize? Conservatives chortled. But Bob McDonnell issued
a sincere statement of congrats. The guy ran a good campaign.
Marc Ambinder (7:30 p.m.)
everyone's noting, the percentage of young voters dropped off
substantially from 2008. What should be noted: young voter turnout is
never high in off-off year elections. That's not where Creigh Deeds's
problems originated from. Look at his standing among independents.
True, independents tend to lean toward the out-party in these
elections, but Deeds had a foothold with them before the summer. Then
the summer happened. The summer: GM bailed out. Unemployment spikes.
Talk in Washington of a trillion dollar health care bill. Suddenly,
independent men, in particular, began to orient themselves toward the
basic Republican message: lower taxes, less government intervention,
less spending. Waiting to see the geographic cross-tabs, but I'm
betting that, where there's a comparison to be made, you'll find that
Deeds did much worse among suburban (Richmond and DC) independents,
particularly men, particularly those over 45.
Marc Ambinder (6:10 p.m.)
25% of Virginians said health care was their top issue. A good chunk of
those folks might have voted for the Republican. A Washington Post poll
last week showed that health care priority voters were giving their
support to the Democrat and the Republican almost evenly. Very rarely
do Republicans turn out health care priority voters....
Marc Ambinder (6:05 p.m.)
The first round of exit polls come to us courtesy of my friends at CBS News
. Please be sure to visit their website first!
First things first: even in a year when the composition of the
electorate is dramatically different than the 2008 presidential
election, President Obama's approval rating in Virginia is 51% among
voters surveyed. In New Jersey, it's 57%. Fewer than half of voters
for Bob McDonnell, the Republican gubernatorial candidate in VA, say
they voted to send a message to Obama. About 38% of voters for Chris
Christie, the New Jersey GOPer, tried to send a message, too. 38% of
CreighDeeds voters said their vote for the Democrat was to support
The big issues: the economy, to 46% of voters in
Virginia. In New Jersey, it was the economy -- 31% , followed by
property taxes (25%). 25% of voters in Virginia said health care was
their top issue compared to 18% who said the same in New Jersey.
Marc Ambinder (5:31 p.m.)
Kirk (R-IL) has got to be mighty nervous about the results tonight.
Conservative Eric Wallace dropped out of the GOP primary for Illinois
Senate today, all-but-promising to challenge Kirk as an Independent.
The first wedge: what does Kirk thing of Sarah Palin, who's coming to
town on 11/16 to tape an Oprah appearance?
Marc Ambinder (5:26 p.m.)
Amy Fried of the University of Maine writes about ME -1, the marriage proposition in Maine:
comparator race for the marriage vote this year is Question 1 - 2005.
This was the third people's veto to overturn a sexual orientation
provison in the state anti-discrimination law. The Maine legislature
kept adding it and the Maine Christian Civic League kept mounting
people's vetoes. They lost in 2005 rather substantially in an off-off
year. I think that if No on 1 wins this year, the margin would be
tighter than in 2005 but it is still worth checking to see how this
year's results are comparing since the patterns by town are likely to be similar.
Marc Ambinder (5:21 p.m.)
To help explain what we might see tonight, here's a look at the electoral equation for Virginia.
Change in the Composition Of The Electorate (a state where Party ID
among likely voters shifts from a GOP advantage of 1-2% to 6-8%)
An Awful Summer For National Democrats, Thanks To Health Care And Bailout/Spending
An Energized Republican Electorate Thanks To Health Care -- and NO bill to show them up
An excellent, pitch-perfect Campaign By Republican Bob McDonnell
huge money gap between Democrats and Republicans (including a massive
Chamber of Commerce ad buy downstate, NRA ads, RGA ads (later in the
Economic anxiety among older men and independents 45 years and older...
Marc Ambinder (5:12 p.m.)
believe anecdotal turnout hints...only the Secretaries of State (and
sometimes, not even those folks) have a handle on what's going on.