The motion of the ocean aside, here's a quick guide to some Democratic House members that Republicans believe are genuinely vulnerable in a year when President Obama isn't on the ballot. (Note: isn't it interesting how this formulation admits that, were Obama to be on the ballot, some of these folks wouldn't be as vulnerable?) Even though the NRCC hasn't recruited challengers in all of these districts, they've begun to target the incumbents in radio ads and through auto-dial calls in an effort to both test how vulnerable these Democrats are and begin to soften them up if they aren't. There are potentially vulnerable Dems not on this list, but I'm sticking to the races where the GOP has spent the most money (on TV, on polling, on recruitment) so far.
Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) -- Voted no on health care (she was leaning towards voting "yes"), yes for the stimulus package, voted yes on cap-and-trade (though it shouldn't matter much in her district, which spans suburban Orlando and Brevard County). She has two declared GOP challengers so far, but has managed to outraise both of them. Her perch on the House Financial Services Committee helps her bring $$ to the district.
Alan Grayson (FL-08) -- He represents Orlando, and he's a target because of his outspokesness on health care and other issues. He's also independently wealthy, and has so far scared away Republican challengers. His Netroots popularity means a steady source of support and money should he scare one in to the race.
Eric Massa (NY-29) -- Won by two points in a district where McCain won by 10; GOPers are counting on new conservative energy upstate; voted against health care and cap-and-trade but for the stimulus. Massa's victory in '08 is generally attributed as much to his opponents' baggage, which means he is uniquely preyable if GOPers can find a good recruit, like they might have in Monroe County exec. Maggie Brooks, who is moderate, or Assemblyman Brian Korb. Redistricting concerns may determine which GOPer runs. The jobs picture will determine who wins. Other New Yorkers targets for the NRCC: Scott Murphy (won a special election by a tiny margin; voted against health care, but the GOP needs a good recruit) Mike McMahon (voted for cap-and-trade; McCain won his district by a few points), Mike Arcuri (a sophomore, he voted for health reform and won in '08 by only 10k votes)
Tom Perriello (VA-05) -- Voted for the health care bill and the stimulus package, for cap-and-trade; won his district by a fraction of a point, thanks to Obama Surge turnout in Charlottesville. His votes make him vulnerable, but Democrats, impressed by his loyalty, are going to do everything they can to help him.