Marc asked yesterday whether the Quinnipiac Poll showing President Obama's approval rating well below the national average was an outlier. Without more polls from Ohio or similar states that's tough to answer, but Quinnipiac polls Ohio from last year were outliers--in favor of Obama.
Quinnipiac pegged Obama's approval rating in Ohio at about the same level where it stood nationally back in May. Since then his national approval rating has declined, but according to Quinnipiac, it's dropped like a stone in Ohio.
This is unexpected coming from Quinnipiac, which often reported stronger numbers for Obama in Ohio during the election than did other surveys. From March to mid-May, it was the only public poll showing Obama ahead of McCain. (Then it cut against the grain in the other direction by reporting one of two leads for McCain among polls conducted in May.) From then on it consistently reported Obama ahead, typically by larger margins than other polls were reporting--once by 14 points in October, the largest lead either candidate had in an Ohio poll last year.
While Quinnipiac came short of Obama's margin of victory by slightly more than a percentage point in its final poll, it predicted McCain would finish four points worse than he did.