Some interesting tidbits today on Intrade, the prediction market that takes bets on all things political, in addition to wine and art prices, with a reputation for accuracy:
- Intrade has begun taking bets on whether American journalists Euna Lee and Laura Ling will be released by North Korea before midnight ET on December 31, 2009--which is probably more interesting from ethical angles than political ones. So far, 172 bids have been placed, and the closing price is currently 75, indicating a market consensus that there's a 75 percent chance Lee and Ling will be released.
- Bettors are picking Mir Hussein Moussavi to unseat Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the country's elections this Friday: bets on Moussavi are trading at 55 (indicating a consensus 55 percent likelihood); Ahmadinejad's at 40.1 (40.1 consensus probability)
- Cap and trade energy reform is dead even. Bets on whether a cap and trade system for emissions trading will be established before midnight ET on December 31, 2010 is trading at an even 50; bettors think it's less likely to happen this year (in the high twenties).