Consensus on the probability that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will step down by the end of June have shot up to 21.5% at Intrade today. The price of a bet on Geithner's departure was $1 yesterday; now, they're trading at $2.15 (bets vary between $0 and $10, hence the correlation to percent probability). Consensus probability that Geithner will step down by the end of December, which has always been higher than the June projection, is now at 35%, as bet prices have risen from $2.40 on Tuesday to $3.50 today. Also worth noting: trading volume is up, indicating this is a more popular question to bet on now that AIG-related criticism is dominating the news. See charts after the jump.

Trading pattern for bets on Geithner to step down by the end of June:

Geithner at Intrade.png
Trading pattern for bets on Geithner to step down by the end of December:
Geithner to depart by December.png


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